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Covid-19 rebound: why the next two weeks are decisive

2021-01-08T15:25:38.900Z


In recent weeks, the number of contaminations in France has been on a high "plateau", oscillating between 10,000 and 15,000 again.


Fifteen days to hope, or to be disillusioned.

The evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic over the "next two weeks" will be "decisive as to a possible rebound", Public Health France said on Friday.

The time has indeed come to see or not an effect of the end of the year holidays on the epidemic, in particular New Year's Eve when the curfew was in force but not always respected.

The "net increase" in the number of new cases of contamination noted last week is "perhaps the beginning of the consequences of the end-of-year gatherings", but it will be necessary to see if this trend is confirmed and if the number of hospitalized patients increases in turn.

Which is "likely," health agency officials explained at an online press conference.

Almost 40% fewer screening

In recent weeks, the number of contaminations in France has been on a high “plateau”, fluctuating between 10,000 and 15,000 new cases per day.

Last week, nearly 100,000 new confirmed cases were recorded, up 17% from the previous week, according to the latest epidemiological point.

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At the same time, the screening rate fell by 39%, after the peak linked to people who wanted to be tested before the holidays.

The number of severe forms of Covid-19 remained stable last week, with 7,460 new hospitalizations (-3% compared to the previous week) and 1,135 new intensive care admissions (+ 2%).

The threat of virus mutations

But "serious forms usually occur at a distance" from the appearance of the first clinical signs, recalled Christine Campese, epidemiologist at Public Health France.

Also, "it is likely that in the coming days, there will be an increase in these hospitalizations", she added.

The evolution of the epidemiological situation will also be particularly scrutinized due to the detection in France of two new, more contagious variants of the Sars-CoV-2 virus, one reported for the first time in the United Kingdom and the other which has emerged in South Africa.

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Even if "there is no evidence of an increased severity of infections" to these new variants, their only "increased transmissibility exposes, if nothing is done in terms of prevention, to a total number of greater cases. », Explained Bruno Coignard, director of infectious diseases at Public Health France.

Result, "even if the proportion of serious forms or death remains the same, if the incidence increases, we run the risk of having more hospitalized forms, more serious forms and death", he underlined.

Source: leparis

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