We suspected that the Covid-19 epidemic would increase mortality in France, we did not yet know in what proportions.
This Friday, Insee announced that 53,900 more people had died in 2020 compared to 2019, an increase of 9%.
A total of 667,400 people lost their lives last year, according to the count stopped on January 15.
This is unheard of for several decades, especially since this assessment for the year 2020 is "still provisional because the end-of-year deaths have not yet all been transmitted to INSEE", indicates the body.
In 2003, a year marked by the very strong heat wave, nearly 560,000 people died.
Deaths from all causes
INSEE lists all deaths, whether the cause (Covid-19, but also cancer, old age, accident, etc.).
Of course, we cannot yet know what is the share of deaths directly attributable to Covid-19.
This January 14, Public Health France shows 69,313 people dead because of SARS-CoV-2, but we do not know the share of deaths at home, for example.
In addition, the coronavirus crisis may also have had indirect effects, for example by delaying care for people with chronic diseases.
Conversely, confinement has greatly reduced road accidents, especially in the spring.
“The problem with deaths from all causes is that we mix everything up, the direct effects and the indirect effects of the Covid, etc.
But it remains an interesting way of trying to estimate excess mortality, while waiting to have consolidated and more complete statistics with the causes ”, indicates France Meslé, research director at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED ).
Strong disparities between regions
The metropolitan regions most affected are Île-de-France (+ 18%), Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (+ 14%), and Grand-Est (+ 13%).
This is not surprising, since they were the three most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic last year: Île-de-France and Grand Est especially during the first wave in spring, Auvergne. Rhône-Alpes mainly during the second this fall (1,760 deaths in hospital from March 18 to August 1, then 5,555 additional until December 31).
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Six departments even experienced a death surplus of at least 20% in 2020: Seine-Saint-Denis, Haute-Savoie, Seine-et-Marne, Haut-Rhin, Savoie and Essonne.
Conversely, some regions were more spared.
In mainland France, four have recorded less than 5% additional deaths: Brittany, New Aquitaine, Pays-de-La Loire and Occitanie.
Overseas, it is also the case of Martinique, Guyana and Reunion.
Older people particularly affected
We also note that excess mortality concerns only the elderly.
Below 60 years, the number of deaths increased by less than 2% in all age groups.
Conversely, there are at least 10% more deaths among 70-80 year olds, for example.
The result is not surprising, since young people have severe forms of Covid-19 much less often.
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These comparisons make sense from the moment when "there is no huge change in population or age structures from one year to another", adds France Meslé.
But as this expert on demographic questions reminds us, "as the population tends to age year after year due to the baby boom after World War II, we knew that the number of deaths was going to increase anyway."