It is a study whose results are worrying.
On Monday, the National Institute of Health and Medical Research (Inserm) published estimates of the development, in the coming weeks, of the British variant of the coronavirus in France.
Called VOC by the four researchers behind this modeling, this variant, which is much more contagious, represented 1.4% of the contaminations detected in France during the first week of January.
According to the various projections for the development of the epidemic, it "would become dominant in France between the end of February and mid-March", predicts Inserm.
Worse still, according to the institute, "weekly hospitalizations should reach the level of the peak of the first wave between mid-February and early April, in the absence of interventions".
To fight, the strengthening of social distancing
Inserm predicts that the “VOC” could have a transmission rate of between 1.5 and 1.7.
That is, each infected person could transmit it to at least one other person.
The researchers are then based on a contagiousness 50 to 70% higher than the coronavirus present in France for a year.
However, these projections do not take into account the potential positive effects of the vaccination campaign launched on December 27.
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Another limitation, the study is based on figures dating back to a period when the 6 p.m. curfew was not yet implemented in mainland France.
Its potential effects are therefore not taken into account.
Finally, this scenario could be revised depending on the impact of other variants, such as the one discovered in South Africa.
A time trial "to delay the recovery"
In the meantime, Inserm insists on "the need to strengthen social distancing measures and speed up the vaccination campaign to deal with the threat of the VOC variant".
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A race against time that is also part of the Institut Pasteur.
“What we see is that in all scenarios, vaccination reduces the impact of the epidemic wave (on the hospital).
But this reduction is greater if we manage to delay the start of the resumption of circulation of the virus because we will have succeeded in vaccinating more people, ”explains Simon Cauchemez, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur and member of the scientific council.
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According to Pasteur's team, it is difficult to predict when and to what extent the VOC variant will spread in France.
Based on its current presence (around 1% of cases) and depending on whether it is transmitted 40% more than the dominant strain in France, or 70%, the number of cases of the British variant would reach 3,752 or 26,394 per day on March 1, estimates the team of Simon Cauchemez.
The researchers then bet on the vaccination campaign which "makes it possible to reduce the number of hospitalizations at the peak of 20%, 33% and 44% depending on the level of increase in", writes the team of the Institut Pasteur .
Same effects on the need for intensive care beds: they would be reduced only by 11% if the increase in circulation of the virus occurs from February 1, but by 20% if it is on March 1 and by 37% if it is. on April 1.
If the vaccine "saves us a week, two weeks, it's good to take", concludes Simon Cauchemez.