Epidemiologists like clear, crisp curves that leave little room for interpretation.
However, that of the second wave of the Covid is not straightforward.
"Ah, not easy to say exactly when it starts and when it ends.
We see a concomitance between cases and deaths, mid-October, then a peak, then a descent, then a plateau… The second wave was partly controlled but never stopped ”, summarizes Antoine Flahault, director of the Institut de global health in Geneva.
Last spring, thanks to a galloping reproduction rate (almost 3, compared to 1.2 today) and less knowledge of barrier gestures in the face of an enemy then unknown, the first wave carried away nearly 30,000 people in France.
The one that follows is slower, but more extensive, in time and geographically, this time sparing no region.
In the end, it is more deadly.
This Monday, January 18, the fatal toll stood at 70,686 dead, 403 more than the day before.
“The first wave was cut off by its arrival at the end of winter.
The second appeared much earlier, in the fall, with all winter ahead, a season conducive to the spread of the virus.
He has more time to act, and therefore to crack down, ”continues Professor Flahault.
And thus play on the nerves of the population, which wonders if the attraction of Sars-Cov-2 for the cold season will not earn it a third confinement.
Fewer Covid deaths in hospitals
Because it is the season that poses the problem.
"The virus is not more virulent", slices the epidemiologist.
If the new variants question and are probably more contagious, they are not responsible today for an increased excess mortality.
Another major indicator of the stability of the virus: we now die much less from Covid-19 in hospitals, thanks to a better knowledge of its mechanisms and the use of corticosteroids for patients on oxygen.
How to imagine the future?
"I will avoid any prediction for more than a week," replied Antoine Flahault.
But his gaze is focused on Australia, where winter, like the second wave, is over.
“The mortality was three and a half times higher than the first wave.
This does not mean that we will have the same thing, but shows the role that a very long time span of the epidemic can play, ”he explains.
Especially since in France, the winter is not over, and has certainly not said its last word.
