A week after the announcement of the national advancement of the curfew at 6 p.m., France and the epidemic due to the coronavirus are navigating between two waters.
It is too early to measure the extent of a possible slowdown offered by the measures put in place last weekend across the country.
At the same time, the English and South African variants continue to pose the threat of further acceleration and re-containment.
Over the past week, an average of 19,239 people have tested positive each day, compared to 17,832 daily over the previous seven days (+ 7.9%).
Same trend on hospitalizations, with 1,542 daily new arrivals every day this week, against 1,299 during the previous seven days (+ 19%).
In terms of deaths, the Covid-19 claimed the lives of 286 people on average every day of the week in hospitals, compared to 255 on average over the previous week (+ 12%).
No "Christmas effect"
“The epidemic is on the rise.
Not very quickly, but it is rising, notes Renaud Piarroux, epidemiologist and head of the parasitology service at the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital.
If we put aside the holiday season, we see a 10 to 15% increase in new cases each week, at the same rate as before the holidays.
This means that the messages of caution have passed.
"
A satisfaction shared by Jean-Stéphane Dhersin, deputy scientific director of the National Institute of Mathematical Sciences and their interactions of the CNRS (Insmi-CNRS): “The effect of Christmas has hardly been felt and the New Year has never been felt. did not cause an explosion as one might fear.
In terms of controlling the epidemic, it remains fragile, but the curfew had proved its worth in September in Marseille and a little later in other territories.
This time again, the effects of his advancement are significant.
The question is:
is that enough?
"
Professor Piarroux is more reserved about the rules put in place, "it is very difficult to measure the effects": "What we can say is that a rebalancing has been done between the east and the West of France.
Some departments under advanced curfew from January 2 experienced a moderate increase.
But we also observe an identical development in neighboring departments which were not confined until a week later.
"
Concern about the English variant
The two experts and the entire scientific community agree in considering that the "game changer" is the English variant, which represents 1 to 2% of positive cases in France according to infectious disease specialists, and which today affects nearly 60 countries and territories, including China.
“As this variant is configured, it will take over, warns the doctor.
By the time it does, the epidemic will accelerate.
What happened in England hangs in our face.
"
Jean-Stéphane Dhersin, modeler of the epidemic, believes that France can allow itself a little time: "We still know little about its real diffusion and it remains to be verified that its dynamic is the same as in England while the context is not the same.
Maybe he is very sensitive to barrier gestures?
The most plausible hypothesis is that it follows the same trajectory, but with only a little over 1% of positive cases of this variant, we can allow ourselves a little time to verify it.
We're not going to see him for two to three weeks.
"
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Professor Piarroux, on the contrary, warns of the risks of an overly wait-and-see solution: "To avoid congestion in hospitals, we can slow down very hard as soon as possible, with a spring 2020 type confinement, up to a number of daily cases between 5,000 and 10,000. This would allow a certain margin.
If we start from a situation of 40,000 or 50,000 cases daily, with a virus that spreads much faster, we will find ourselves in a much more delicate situation in hospitals and in addition we will have to confine for longer.
We will not escape harsh measures, it is better to take them right away, even if it means easing them quickly.
"
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Nearly 693,000 people were vaccinated this Wednesday evening in France, the vast majority with a single dose.
The vaccination being considered completely effective seven days after the second injection, it is obviously too early to consider an immediate effect on the curves of the epidemic.
Good news in this rather dark horizon, two preliminary studies seem to show that the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine is effective against the English variant.
