The corona plague has been raging around the world for a year, and although the State of Israel is in the midst of an extensive vaccination campaign - it is not certain that the end is around the corner • We checked with experts what they think about the mutations that have developed, and when the restrictions should be eased?
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The corona virus surprises us time and time again, and despite the impressive vaccination campaign, the State of Israel is deep in a third closure that lasted close to a month, during which the restrictions were tightened.
We asked the experts when they thought it would be possible to get out of tightening the restrictions, whether it would be worthwhile to open the vaccine to the general public and the question: Is there a mutation that is resistant to the vaccine?
Senior Ministry of Health: "We will see the vaccine effect in another 3 weeks" // Photo: Ministry of Health
First, let's start with the good news - most experts believe that there is currently no mutation that endangers the vaccine: not the British, not the Brazilians, not the South Africans or anyone else.
With regard to the opening of the closure, they believe that this should be done in an informed manner.
And with regard to opening up the possibility of vaccination to the general population, it turns out that it is still worthwhile to focus on the weaker groups although the rules can be eased for the rest of the public.
Prof. Nadav Davidovich, head of the School of Public Health at Ben-Gurion University and a member of the government advisory team on the Corona issue, commented on the possibility of opening the vaccine to the general public: "It is possible to start opening the vaccine to a larger public.
In other words, in Arab society our situation is still not good and only 45 percent of those aged 60 and over have been vaccinated, and even among the ultra-Orthodox population more people aged 60 still need to be vaccinated, so a very targeted campaign should be launched to prioritize this population. "
Prof. Davidovich adds: "It is also worthwhile to start vaccinating the 11th and 12th grades so that they can take the matriculation exams at the end of the year. Therefore, because we have enough vaccines in the country, it is possible to wisely increase the appeal to the public. "Focusing on those who still need to prioritize them in this area. In general, even now, 22 percent of the older public have not yet been vaccinated and it is worthwhile to engage in reducing this amount."
Regarding the question of when it will be possible to open the closure and ease the restrictions, Prof. Davidovich explains that this time the exit process must be much more organized and careful.
"The quarantine at first was perforated and people were not so careful, so the quarantine did not quite work. Also, the British mutation is much more contagious. On the other hand, the vaccine does not yet show its effect."
"I estimate that we will slowly see the impact of the vaccine in having fewer seriously ill patients and less hospitalized. That is, the pressure on the medical system will decrease - then it will be possible to start going out. I estimate it will happen in another week and a half. But even then, it must not "It will be too widespread, because there will still be infection of young people. Therefore, the exit will have to be managed in a smart and orderly manner."
When will there be a strong mutation that will develop resistance to the vaccine?
"You have to understand that there are mutations from the first moment and there is always a fear that one of them will be resistant. So you always have to be vigilant and sequence each mutation. You have to understand how each one affects the protein with which the virus enters the cells. We have technology today. "Dimensional and thus also understand what the change is, what it does to the virus and whether it endangers us more or less. This is a new approach and method of work that has existed in the world for 10 years."
"There is no improvement in the condition of the patients"
Professor Dror Mevorach, head of the corona department at Hadassah Hospital, addresses the question of opening the vaccine to the general public and states that it is mainly a logistical question.
"If there is a situation where the vaccine is opened to 40-year-olds, then there are doses left at the end of the day and start posting messages like 'Come fast, there are doses that should not be thrown away,' then that means the vaccine should be opened at a lower age. Of a thing. "
"But if there are still big queues, there are people standing and waiting all the time, then it is better to wait and not open the queues further. In fact it is a question of conduct, of being able to know how many vaccines I have and how many people are waiting in line," he added.
Regarding the question of whether the closure can now be opened, Dr. Mevorach said that at the moment the reality is still very difficult, and there seems to be no improvement on the horizon: "I examine the situation and the need for closure not according to the R coefficient or such data of professionals, See me here in the department in Jerusalem.
And hence the situation looks very bad.
There is no stopping the number of patients coming, and there is no improvement.
In this respect, in my department, the need for closure remains the same and I have no news. "
Regarding the question of when a mutation will arrive that will be immune-resistant, Prof. Mevorach says that it is difficult to know, but states that there is currently none.
"When it comes to viruses, one should always beware of speculation. All speculation has always turned out to be untrue, so it's a shame to predict. However, in relation to the mutations that exist today: the British and the South African, I highly appreciate that there is nothing to fear. That's why it's really small things. "
"The mutations are not threatening at all - there is no need for closure"
Prof. Eitan Friedman, an expert in internal medicine and medical genetics, founder and director of the oncology unit at the Genetic Institute at Sheba Hospital, and a full-time professor in the Department of Internal Medicine and the Department of Genetics and Biochemistry at Tel Aviv University, said 90 percent of vaccines should be vaccinated.
"Before opening vaccines to the general public, one must first know that there are enough vaccines for everyone, but at the same time it is important to reach a very high level of vaccination among at-risk populations. I mean older people, people exposed to a large audience, education, health, drivers, people who do not "They have a good immune system. If we reach 90 percent immunity in all these age groups, then we can move forward."
With regard to mutations in the virus, Prof. Friedman claims that at the moment there is no fear of a mutation or of the mutations that will come soon.
"There is no need to scare the public - not from the British mutation, not from the Brazilian, not from the South African and not from the next in line. In the section of the virus against which the vaccine was directed there are 1,273 amino acids they acted against. So if we say the British virus has 8 changes and the South African mutation Not serious.If you build a wall from 1,273 bricks and 3 or 8 fell to you - it does not bring down the wall.In general we know the rate of changes in corona mutations and they are done at twice the rate of flu virus mutations.Therefore no need to stress the public It will take time for a resistant mutation to arrive. "
Regarding the closure, Prof. Friedman says: "In this field, my opinion is known and famous that full closure damage is greater than its benefits. I said and I say again that closure is a mistake. In general, I think we should open the education system now and not wait with it. "A lot of standards for our health system in the country so that the system is not overloaded, that's what's important."