Would there be two Olivier Véran?
One, very cautious before the Senate Law Commission.
The other, frankly more optimistic in front of the TF1 newscast?
In the space of a few hours, the Minister of Health delivered two not exactly identical answers on the vaccination schedule.
"Even with the best organization and all the supplies, we could not have vaccinated all vulnerable audiences by the summer," he warned late Thursday morning facing the senators.
One way of recalling the official objective of the executive: to vaccinate by then some 15 million people out of a target population of 25 to 30 million French people deemed to be at risk.
Change of gear, a few hours later against Gilles Bouleau.
The minister confirms this time that at the end of August, France will be able to vaccinate 70 million people.
In other words, all French people who so wish can be vaccinated at this time.
All this, he adds, on one condition: that all the vaccines ordered are “validated by the health authorities.
"
In the entourage of the minister, we still wanted to provide some details on Friday noon.
“70 million is a capacity, not a goal.
This is the number of people we could vaccinate if we needed it.
But the strategy has not changed.
The target of 15 million French people vaccinated at the end of June remains valid, our prioritization strategy for the most vulnerable people is not called into question.
The fact remains that the minister himself tweeted a few minutes later that the government's objective is to “protect all French people before the end of August”.
Provided, always, that deliveries arrive on time and that all vaccines are authorized.
Our plan is clear: we have ordered enough vaccines to protect all French people before the end of August (137 million doses delivered at a rate that will accelerate month after month).
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- Olivier Véran (@olivierveran) January 22, 2021
This assertion does not mean that France intends to bite its more than 67 million inhabitants.
At the ministry, it is recalled that the plan does not currently provide for vaccinating children for example, even if the government does not "refrain from evolving on this point" if the recommendations were to impose such a decision.
Let us not forget either the refractories, who will not be vaccinated since the act is not compulsory.
These are difficult to quantify, making it just as difficult to assess the maximum number of French people who will ultimately be protected.
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Many other parameters no doubt explain why the government seems to be walking on eggshells in this way.
Vaccinating all volunteers implies, as Olivier Véran insists, that all vaccines already ordered by France are first authorized by the European Medicines Agency.
And if we remind the ministry that the most fragile will be served first, whatever happens, it is because doubts must still be raised as to the fact that the various vaccines are all effective in all populations, which does not is not yet guaranteed.
The issue of deliveries, again, will play a predominant role.
According to the latest figures issued by Olivier Véran, France, if all goes well, will have 137 million doses at the end of August, all vaccines combined.
This figure takes into account in particular the new rules established by the Pfizer laboratory, which decided to reduce by 20% the volume of vials delivered for the same number of vaccines due to the possibility of extracting a sixth dose of vaccine in each of the vials. shipped.
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The government is assured on this point to exercise the greatest vigilance, to ensure that doses do not disappear in nature.
“We are not going to say that this is good news, concedes a ministerial source.
But everything will be done to limit losses.
The rate of loss, precisely, has been revised downwards by the executive and also allows to display a little more optimism about the vaccine potential.
Initially set at 30%, it would ultimately not exceed 10%.
"We realized that the professionals were very careful, that the breakages were infrequent, and that the dose management was effective", indicates the entourage of Olivier Véran.
Everything will be played out this summer
So many hazards that call for caution without preventing the government from imagining an optimistic scenario.
Go from 15 million vaccinated at the end of June to all volunteers at the end of August?
"It is possible, we slip to the Ministry of Health.
Vaccines will be less restrictive, especially with regard to conservation.
And the campaign could thus gain a little more vigor.
When the time comes to vaccinate the general public, the government maintains its ambition to rely on the territorial network of general practitioners and pharmacies to put its plan into action.
So much so that vaccinodromes are not really a priority.
“We are not saying that this track is completely ruled out, but that is not what we are heading towards today.
"
France is not there yet and the executive is careful not to promise wonders to a population weary of such a long tunnel of health restrictions.
"When the senators ask the minister when can resume" normal life ", this obviously invites caution, explains the Ministry of Health.
But what is certain is that whenever it is possible to speed up vaccinations, without putting a strain on injections for populations at risk, we will do so.
"While waiting for the beautiful days.
