A report by Hebrew University researchers, who previously predicted the epidemic trends relatively accurately, leaves room for optimism • However, the researchers expect the death toll to reach 5,000 before mid-February • The quarantine must be measured "
Researchers at the Hebrew University claim that the congestion in hospitals is expected to decrease in the coming week, but the decline will be slow due to the British mutation.
A report released today (Wednesday) to decision-makers states that the decline in morbidity and validation is the same as the rate corresponding to the previous phase of closure.
Health Minister Edelstein at a discussion in the Constitution Committee: "We will ask for a one-week extension to close" // Photo: Knesset Channel
According to experts, the heavy workload on hospitals is expected to decrease in the coming week, following a decrease in serious morbidity.
From the beginning of January, it has become apparent that the mortality rate of critically ill patients has increased by 30%, and it seems that even before mid-February the number of deaths will be 5,000.
This means that quarantine in combination with vaccines leads to a noticeable decrease in morbidity in all indices.
However, only during the next week will the degree of effect of the vaccine and closure on the rate of decrease in morbidity become clear.
Experts fear the British mutation will cause a slower decline in verified than in the previous closure, delaying relief from hospital congestion.
Therefore, the main recommendation is to continue the process that will ensure a reduction in morbidity.
It is advisable to make sure that the exit process leads to less than 1,000 new infections per day, and to a drop to a few dozen severe patients per day (expected - mid-February). "These data accelerate or slow down the process of leaving the quarantine," the report said.
The experts further noted: "It is recommended to integrate the activation of the education system at an early stage in areas with low morbidity and a high percentage of vaccines, in light of the fact that the effect observed on the infection rate among students is small."