Disturbing.
The English variant of Covid-19 represents nearly 10% of cases detected in Ile-de-France for two weeks, which augurs well for a next "very significant" increase in the number of patients, doctors from the Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP).
The analysis of 1080 positive PCR tests, carried out between January 11 and 21 in eight screening sites in Ile-de-France, concluded that 9.4% correspond to the English variant, said Prof. Anne-Geneviève Marcelin, virologist at La Pitié- Salpêtrière, during a press conference.
"These results should be taken with caution" but confirm "a tendency to increase this variant", she added.
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A rate of 1 to 2% at the national level was observed after a first national "flash survey" on more than 10,000 positive PCRs on January 7 and 8.
A second is due to start on Wednesday.
The "intermediate" study carried out in Ile-de-France "corresponds fairly well to the models that have been made by the Pasteur Institute", underlined Ms. Marcelin, recalling that the organization was counting on a range of 2 to 12% at the start February, then 12 to 64% at the beginning of March.
"The situation is worrying"
"We are at an inflection point", noted Professor Frédéric Batteux, head of the immunology department at Cochin hospital, observing that the reproduction rate of Covid-19 "has gone above 1.2 And continues to climb.
With an English strain "40 to 60% more contagious", he said he expected "a very significant increase when this variant takes over."
At Paris Hospitals, the indicators linked to Covid are already all in the red: calls to the Samu, emergency room visits and SOS Médecins consultations have all jumped by more than 30% since the start of the year, has t -He specifies.
In three weeks, the daily rate of hospitalizations increased from 50 to 70 per day, and intensive care admissions from 15 to 25.
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"The situation is worrying" and "looks a lot like an exponential", insisted Professor Bruno Riou, AP-HP crisis medical director, in favor of a "decision as quickly as possible" for "new measures, more drastic ”than the curfew.
"If we do nothing, we will have a wave that risks overflowing our hospitals," he warned.
