Since the introduction of the curfew at 6 p.m., the question has regularly arisen of its positive impact on the Covid-19 epidemic.
What if, conversely, it paradoxically led to an increase in contamination?
Such is the opinion of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, at least concerning Toulouse.
In the prefecture of Haute-Garonne, the curfew at 6 pm had "harmful" effects because it "increased the circulation of the virus", he said Saturday evening on the set of the show "On is live ”, on France 2.
What Jean-Luc Mélenchon said
“Even in science, there is no definitive truth.
When you see the results of the curfew in Toulouse, it has increased the circulation of the virus, ”exclaimed the leader of rebellious France.
I believe that our country is capable of mobilizing.
But we must not try to train him and impose decisions on him.
We have seen that in #Toulouse, the curfew had harmful effects.
#OEED
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon (@JLMelenchon) January 30, 2021
Contacted to find out what it was based on, the entourage of the future presidential candidate of 2022 refers to an article in La Dépêche published on Friday, and titled "How the curfew at 6 pm aggravated the epidemic in Toulouse".
This is based on the results of analyzes carried out by the virology laboratory of the Toulouse University Hospital.
Two other articles, 20 minutes long and from the actu.fr site, also relayed them.
What the numbers say
The indicators are clearly on the rise in the metropolis of Toulouse, given the figures provided by Public Health France.
The incidence rate, corresponding to the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the past week, rose from 60 at Christmas to 231 on January 27 (the most recent figure available).
On average, as of January 27, it stands at 229 in the 22 largest cities and to 181 in the 15 cities where the 6 p.m. curfew only started on January 16, and not on January 2, 10. , nor the 12.
The positivity rate is available in open data only at the department level.
In Haute-Garonne, it now stands at nearly 7%, against less than 2% at the end of December.
However, the department is not one of those in the Occitanie region where these virological indicators are of greatest concern to Public Health France.
In its regional report published on Thursday, the health agency mentions above all the Gers, Lozère and Tarn-et-Garonne.
What we can conclude (or not)
In view of these worsening figures in Toulouse, one might think that the 6 p.m. curfew had a negative impact there.
But it is impossible to say for sure.
As we have seen, the indicators rose again at the end of December, so well before the advanced curfew at 6 p.m. (it was set at 8 p.m. since December 15).
However, the effects of a measure can only appear on the contaminations curves at least 8 to 10 days later.
Public Health France noted Thursday that "the decline compared to the date of implementation of the curfew at 6 pm does not yet allow to analyze its possible effects".
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon points out in particular a possible effect linked to the crowds in stores and in town before 6 p.m.
"It was enough to go shopping on a Saturday to realize that it is a mess and that people are packed on top of each other", he won over France 2, proposing in particular to develop the working hours.
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"The fact of having concentrated the movement of people at the same times is perhaps an undesirable effect of the curfew at 6 p.m., in Toulouse anyway," advances more cautiously in La Dépêche Chloé Diméglio, biostatistician in the laboratory of virology of Toulouse University Hospital.
Still, among the eleven more populated cities, Toulouse is the penultimate in terms of population density, according to figures from INSEE.
A priori, it is therefore not particularly affected by this risk of high traffic.
And even though the incidence continues to increase after the entry into force of the 6 p.m. curfew, there is nothing to link the two elements.
"These are two phenomena in parallel, there is no causal link between the curfew and the increase," said Pierre Delobel, head of infectious and tropical diseases at Toulouse University Hospital, 20 minutes away.
VIDEO. Covid-19: "The effectiveness of the curfew is fading", indicates Olivier Véran
We can also see that the increase is slowing down.
The incidence rate in Toulouse climbed 14% from January 20 to 27, but by 34% a week earlier.
In addition, the concentration of wastewater in SARS-CoV-2 in the city decreased slightly in mid-January, after twenty days of increase, according to the latest data from the Obépine network.
This trend is encouraging but has yet to be confirmed over time.
If so, one could hope for a drop in new cases in the days to come.
“Some could say that the contaminations have increased because of the English variant or the 'galette des rois effect' and it would have been worse without the curfew, but the scientist interviewed [in the Dispatch] specifies that nothing corroborates this hypothesis ”, finally points out the entourage of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
"But nothing either allows us to say that the curfew advanced to 6 p.m. has" increased contamination "in Toulouse.
In summary :
The indicators show a worsening of the health situation in Toulouse since the end of December, as in many other parts of the territory.
The 6 p.m. curfew came into effect in Haute-Garonne on January 16.
The curves continued to climb but there is nothing to link this increase to this advanced curfew.
Several signals, such as a slower increase in the incidence rate and wastewater readings, also point to a possible lull in the coming days.