Health personnel administer the second doses of the vaccine against covid-19 to the personnel of the Catalan Institute of Health (ICS) in the CAP Montnegre de las Corts.
Barcelona, on January 28. Albert Garcia / EL PAÍS
With the current vaccination rate, it would take years to immunize the entire Spanish population.
This phrase, repeated by some political leaders, is true.
But it does not contribute anything that we have not known for more than a month.
With some alteration, it was the intended rhythm.
The plan was for it to be accelerated as laboratories produced more doses and new drugs were approved.
The delays in the arrival of vaccines, so far, have forced the calendars to be readjusted, but they have not significantly altered the forecast that had existed since the end of December, when it was announced how many doses were to arrive in Spain in the first quarter.
What will determine if the objectives of vaccinating the bulk of the population in summer are met are not the drugs that arrive until spring, which as planned will be very limited, but those that can be administered thereafter.
How many vaccines have arrived and how many should have?
For this week, adding those from Pfizer and Moderna, it was expected that 1,837,700 doses would have arrived, 68,645 more than those received.
That is, 3.8% of those planned are missing.
The bulk of those administered in this phase are from Pfizer;
only 35,700 of the total are from Moderna.
The first problem occurred last week.
Pfizer delivered 44% fewer vials than anticipated: instead of the expected 350,000 doses, the company shipped 205,727.
This week they have already sent the agreed ones.
Until now it was said that each vial could take five doses.
This week the sixth has already been counted, as approved by the European Medicines Agency.
In other words: with the same amount of medicine, 422,000 doses have been added.
This disrupts accounting and if vaccination teams cannot use all the content (which is not always the case because of syringe dead spaces) injections will be wasted.
Even so, counting just five doses per vial, of Pfizer's 1.75 million projected doses at this point, 1.6 million have come in, 91%.
The second problem, much less in quantitative terms, is a delay in Moderna.
52,000 doses were expected by the middle of this week, which were delayed to the weekend.
How many are left to arrive in the first quarter?
The plan was to have 4.59 million doses of Pfizer and 600,000 of Moderna in the first quarter of the year.
The first has announced that it will increase its production from February 15, with which it is possible that this figure will even be exceeded.
But even at the current rate, the expected figure would be reached by the end of March.
As they require a double injection, they are enough to vaccinate 2.3 million people, which is approximately the population included in the first phase of the plan (residences, toilets and large dependents).
Moderna, for its part, delivered 35,700 doses on January 12, an additional 52,000 this week;
it is slated to ship 127,000 by mid-February and an additional 383,000 before the end of that month.
And here comes the Oxford and AstraZeneca vaccine, which was approved on Friday, January 29, by the European Commission.
Spain expected to receive eight million doses (four million immunizations, since they also require a double injection) in the first quarter.
But the company's announcement that it will deliver only 38% in that period may lower those corresponding to Spain to less than four million.
This could significantly delay vaccination plans.
It will depend on the end of the ongoing negotiation with the European Union, which tries to minimize the losses.
Can people over 80 be vaccinated in March?
After phase 1, the next population group to be vaccinated will be those over 80, 2.8 million people (some of whom were already included in the first).
To determine if you can start your vaccination in March, as provided by Health, it is essential to know if the Oxford vaccine will be administered in people over 65 years of age.
It is something that the Ministry of Health is studying, according to a department spokeswoman to EL PAÍS.
With the approval of the European Medicines Agency, which allows its use from 18 years of age, it will be the countries that determine whether it is administered to the elderly population.
Although trials have shown safety in this group, the sample was not statistically significant in determining its effectiveness in it.
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the reference in Germany for infectious diseases, has recommended not to vaccinate people over 65 with this medicine in the German country.
If Spain made the same decision, it would most likely mean altering the vaccination plan, and overtaking another group, such as essential workers or chronically ill before those over 80 years of age, to start using AstraZeneca drugs as soon as possible, which are expected to arrive. imminently.
How many vaccines will arrive in the second trimester?
It is not known.
And here is the crux of the matter.
This figure and the capacity of the communities to manage all those that arrive in a timely manner will determine whether Spain is capable of having immunized 70% of the population in the summer, as the Government has proposed.
Although it is known that Spain, through the European Union, has signed contracts with seven companies, seven different vaccines, totaling 140 million doses, which would allow immunization of 80 million people (most require a double prick), they are not public deadlines.
The forecast is that by the second quarter, the companies that have already approved their drug (Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca) will be producing at a faster rate, so many more would arrive each week than are arriving now.
In addition, it will probably be necessary to add those of Janssen, which although it is less effective than the previous ones, predictably it will already be marketed by that time.
What vaccination rate is necessary to immunize 70% of the population in summer?
If 4.6 million people are immunized in the first quarter (the sum of all those foreseen with those of Pfizer, Moderna and the worst case scenario of AstraZeneca, taking into account that they require two punctures), it would take 28 million more immunized people to reach 70% of the population.
The second and third trimesters have 26 weeks, so it would take more than 2.1 million punctures each week.
They will be fewer if by then Janssen's is being used, which only requires one dose.
In any case, the current rate has to be multiplied.
Information about the coronavirus
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