Covid-19: why Spain, in the midst of an epidemic wave, has not reconfined

If the French government does not rule out new containment at any time, this is out of the question in Spain.

However, the country is facing a strong epidemic wave that began at the beginning of January.

The number of new daily cases climbed to 37,000 a day at the end of January.

The number of hospitalized patients continues to increase and it now exceeds 32,000, including nearly 5,000 in intensive care (2,000 less than the peak reached last April).

However, the Spanish government is relying on the state of emergency, decreed on October 25.

This "worked because it gives the regions the tools to restrict movement on their territory" and "the data we currently have do not make it necessary to go any further", estimated the Minister of Health Salvador Illa on January 17, in the daily El Pais.

A curfew is established at 10 p.m. or 11 p.m. depending on the area.

Each province is then free to take additional measures, at the risk of giving the impression of a big bazaar from the outside.

Ten of the country's 17 regions have closed restaurants and bars and the remaining seven have ordered an earlier evening shutdown, for example.

GDP drops 11% in 2020

If the government is so cautious, it is in particular because of the consequences that a new containment could have on the already very weakened economy of Spain.

GDP fell 11% last year, according to data released Friday by the National Institute of Statistics.

This is a little less than the 12.8% anticipated last October by the International Monetary Fund, but Spain remains one of the most affected countries in the world.

It is also the deepest recession since the Civil War.

"A new confinement would be extremely difficult for 'Spain because it is one of the countries most affected economically since the start of the pandemic a year ago", points to the Parisian economist Christine Rifflart, of the French Observatory economic conditions (OFCE).

2/2 The same goes for bars and restaurants which can only open for a maximum of 4:30 a.m. each day.

(morning and noon).

"If we could give the same aid as in France, everything would be closed" recently indicated the head of health in Catalonia.

- Henry de Laguérie (@henrydelaguerie) January 20, 2021

The expert sees several reasons, including "the importance of tourism and the productive structure with more than half of the companies that are self-employed".

“These companies have no cash flow and that makes them very fragile,” she adds.

According to a study by the Spanish Confederation of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (CEPYME), cited by Reuters on Monday, a new containment could cost 1.8 billion euros per week for companies in the country.

READ ALSO>

Covid-19: Spain and Portugal, the new area which worries in Europe

Add to this that Spain introduced a very strict and very long confinement last spring.

The only authorized trips were for basic necessities, for urgent medical reasons or to walk the dog.

It was forbidden to go out to do some sport while schools remained closed until September.

Enough to weigh heavily on the country's economy.

"The professional, social and mental damage would be very high"

Another fear of the authorities could be the psychological impact on the population ... and the risk of triggering disputes and a fed up.

On January 14, the chief government epidemiologist Fernando Simon had already regretted that the Spaniards had not, according to him, respected the health recommendations of the authorities.

As El Pais sums it up, “the occupational, social and mental damage would be very high” with a new confinement.

In France, the authorities are also faced with having to juggle between health, economic and social matters, and the “acceptability” by the population of the measures taken.

Morning essentials newsletter

A tour of the news to start the day

Subscribe to the newsletterAll newsletters

VIDEO.

Netherlands, Lebanon, Spain ... these countries where restrictive measures against Covid no longer pass

The slight decline in the curve of new cases in Spain, in recent days, could prove the government right if it is confirmed.

In the medium term, containment or not, hopes are now focused on vaccination on both sides of the Pyrenees.

Almost 1.3 million people have already received at least one dose of the vaccine in Spain, and more than 350,000 of them have received both injections.

The number of fully immunized people, compared to the population, is thus ten higher than in France on January 31.