Draghi: the possible scenarios in Parliament

Are there the numbers in Parliament for a government led by Mario Draghi?

In fact, the new prime minister in charge stated, in his short speech after the interview with Mattarella, that he was confident about the possibility of finding parliamentary support.

But the first declarations from the parties do not seem to be able to guarantee with certainty that there will be a majority for Draghi.

These are the

We take for granted that

.

The doubts concern the

and the

, that is, the two parties with the highest number of parliamentarians, both in the Chamber and in the Senate.

So let's see what would happen assuming different scenarios, obtained by crossing 1) the choice of the League (vote in favor, vote against or abstention) and 2) the compactness of the M5S in voting yes or no.

If the

according to YouTrend / CZ, the majority

: the new government would have at least

.

If, on the other hand, the

, limiting defections as much as possible;

conversely, even if the M5S were against, Draghi would not even have an absolute majority - much less a very large one.

A third solution for the League is that of abstention

: in this case, the bar for the vote of confidence would be lowered to 127 in the Senate and 249 in the Chamber, and it would thus become

(as well as FDI), with 138 yeses to Palazzo Madama and 269 to Montecitorio.

At this point, according to the calculations of YouTrend and Cattaneo Zanetto & Co, the numbers on paper would exist, but another variable would come into play: that is the (possible)

.

This is why, whatever the League decides to do, it also becomes decisive to understand what will be the orientation - even if only prevailing - of the parliamentary groups of the 5 Star Movement.