To be able to offer a vaccine against Covid-19 to "all French people who wish it" by the end of the summer, as Emmanuel Macron pledged on Tuesday evening, tens of millions of doses will be necessary.
Shortly before the interview with the Head of State on TF1 and LCI, the Ministry of Health also communicated the updated schedule of deliveries expected by the end of the year.
Several changes, generally expected, appear compared to the version unveiled by Olivier Véran on January 7.
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Six manufacturers are still mentioned: three now authorized or even already administered in France (Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca), and three still awaiting validation and which will not arrive before April, at best (Johnson & Johnson, Curevac and Sanofi / GSK).
The first three groups have announced delays in deliveries during the first quarter.
In February, this led to postponements of first doses in certain regions in order to have enough stocks for the second.
From 21 to 16.3 million doses at the end of March
While the government planned, in early January, to have a total of 21 million doses at the end of March, the expected tonnage was reduced to 16.3 million.
The drop is particularly notable for AstraZeneca, for which the High Authority for Health made its recommendations public on Tuesday.
The number of doses expected by the end of March goes from 9 to 5.8 million.
At the end of June, only 18.4 million are now expected, a third less than the initial 28 million.
For Moderna, 200,000 doses will be missing in February.
The government is however relying on a catch-up in March in order to receive the million and a half doses expected at the end of the first quarter.
Place for vaccines not yet authorized.
In early January, CureVac was expected in April, with 2 million doses delivered in the first month.
It should ultimately not be allowed until mid-spring, at the earliest.
2.6 million doses are expected in May and an additional 2.6 million in June.
At the end of the first half of the year, 2.8 million doses would then be missing compared to the ambition displayed at the start of the year.
The timetable has not fundamentally changed for Johnson & Johnson.
This should not arrive until April, with 8 million doses delivered in total at the end of June.
The only difference: as for others, deliveries the first month could be less numerous than initially planned, before catching up the one after.
Nothing has changed for Sanofi, however.
And for good reason: the French pharmaceutical group is largely behind schedule.
His vaccine will finally be authorized, at best, only in the second half of the year.
France still relies on 45 million doses delivered at the end of the year.
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As Pfizer announced in January, its pace should pick up in the second quarter.
40 million doses are expected by the end of June, versus 26 million a month ago.
Many unknowns
Delays on one side, accelerations on the other ... In the end, France still plans to receive just under 80 million doses of vaccines during the first half of the year.
All except Johnson & Johnson require two doses.
With an unavailability rate that the ministry estimates at only 5%, 41 million French people could then be vaccinated.
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But this schedule is of course only theoretical and it remains subject to various uncertainties.
On the one hand, it is still necessary that the three vaccines always awaited are well placed on the market.
As the news in recent weeks has shown, delays in deliveries are also quite possible.
Finally, some groups are already thinking about a new formula that could be more effective against certain variants of SARS-CoV-2.
VIDEO. Covid-19: Macron promises a vaccine for "all French people who want it" by the end of the summer
Conversely, other unscheduled vaccines could arrive in France.
The Russian Sputnik V, for example, is mentioned more and more often.
“We cannot distribute it in France until the Russian producer has submitted a marketing authorization.
To the extent that he submits it, the authorities will look at it in a scientific and independent manner, ”Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday evening.
