One more month.
Angela Merkel announced on Wednesday that she wanted to maintain at least until March 14 the partial containment device as it has existed since mid-December.
At first glance, this choice may surprise.
As the epidemic slows and its neighbors relax slightly, Berlin is indeed opting for the status quo.
And this despite the wind of discontent and general weariness.
This strategy aims in fact to take a step ahead of the English and South African strains, which are more contagious.
If the infections decrease in the country, "the variants of the coronavirus are spreading" which makes it necessary "that the restrictions remain in place in the coming weeks", is justified the government.
The spectrum of variants and the vaccine context
The epidemiologist Pascal Crépey understands the path adopted by the Chancellor.
"The growth of variants makes the situation fragile", explains this teacher-researcher at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health in Rennes.
The choice to maintain very coercive measures is all the more understandable, he adds, in a context of mass vaccination.
“The question we must collectively ask ourselves is whether the strategy of living with this virus is a good strategy.
However, with the arrival of vaccination, selective pressure is imposed on the virus which will cunning to develop otherwise.
However, with a high level of viral circulation, one is necessarily exposed to a significant risk of the emergence of variants ”.
In summary, the German authorities want to amplify the epidemic decline observed since the end of the year.
Especially since this second wave turned out to be much more deadly than the first.
But what do the numbers say?
In mid-December, there were around 300 new positive cases per day per million inhabitants in Germany.
Today, this number has dropped to 105. It is about three times less than in France, but beware of hasty conclusions: we also test half as much across the Rhine.
Comparative infographic France / Germany Infographic
This general downward trend is also observed in terms of mortality.
Paris and Berlin are also at a crossroads from this point of view.
As it stands, both deplore about 6.5 daily deaths per million inhabitants but this rate is slowly rising in one while it continues to fall in the other.
Comparative infographic France / Germany.
Infographics
“At the present time, there would be enough epidemiological arguments to toughen up the measures in France, notes Pascal Crépey.
The rising plateau on which we find ourselves results in a certain number of hospitalizations and deaths.
So by a significant human cost.
But it is up to each political power to decide whether this human cost is more tolerable than the negative consequences ”.
READ ALSO>
English variant: why an explosion of the epidemic in March is feared
Morning essentials newsletter
A tour of the news to start the day
Subscribe to the newsletterAll newsletters
Many states have taken advantage of this epidemic decline to loosen the screw.
Shops and museums in neighboring Austria, schools in the Netherlands and restaurants in Italy have reopened… “Can't Germany also relax its restrictions a bit?
“Asked the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Tuesday.
As the correspondent for Le Monde reminds us on Twitter, everyone is free to move around in Germany as they wish.
Only Bavaria has a 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew.
But concretely, only hairdressers will be able to relaunch their activity from March 1.
For the rest (schools, shops, restaurants, places of culture, sports hall, etc.), the closures put in place in November and then in December are maintained.
As for the regions, they can of course decide independently to reopen schools and nurseries earlier, but it is indeed a feeling of vexation and vagueness that reigns.
Amortize as much as possible before summer and deconfinement?
According to Christian Drosten, the star virologist who advises the government, we will have to take our trouble patiently.
Lowering this curve as much as possible this winter is to avoid major disappointments this summer, when deconfinement will have become inevitable, he assured at the end of January in the columns of the Spiegel.
“We won't have 20,000 or 30,000 new cases a day, but up to 100,000 in the worst case.
Of course, it will mostly be the young people who are less likely than the elderly to have severe symptoms, but when a large number of young people get infected, the intensive care units will fill up anyway and a lot of people will die [ …] We can dampen this terrible scenario somewhat by lowering the figures now, ”he assured on 22 January.
The government has already given a contamination threshold not to be exceeded to initiate deconfinement.
This incidence rate is set at 35 infections per 100,000 inhabitants over seven days.
That is twice the national average at the moment.