Will it be necessary to go through territorialized measures, as in Dunkirk (North)?
Analysis of the epidemic figures, day after day, shows that some territories are more affected than others by the Covid-19, despite the overall figures on the decline.
The resurgence of the epidemic in certain departments - sometimes even in certain intercommunalities or municipalities - and the spread of variants draw a new map of the territories to be monitored.
The northern prefecture decided on Saturday new measures for Dunkirk and the neighboring Hauts-de-Flandres intermunicipal association, in the face of a significant resurgence of the epidemic due to the spread of the British variant.
"The epidemic evolution of Covid-19 on the territory of Dunkirk has deteriorated sharply", writes the prefecture in a press release, announcing at the same time the obligation to wear a mask throughout the territory, the delay in income and class exits and the establishment of mixed education (face-to-face / distance education) in middle and high schools.
In the urban community of Dunkirk, the incidence rate was 515 cases per 100,000 inhabitants on February 7 (on a sliding week), against 384 a week earlier.
“Between January 1 and February 12, the incidence rates on the urban community of Dunkirk and on the community of communes of Hauts-de-Flandres respectively quadrupled and tripled”, warned, Friday, the Regional Health Agency (ARS) of Hauts-de-France in a letter to the prefect.
14 inter-municipal authorities with a high incidence rate
The agglomeration of Dunkirk is not the only area concerned.
Of the 1,200 French inter-municipal authorities, 200 exceed the maximum alert threshold set at 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (against 193 for the whole of France).
Among them, 14 exceed an incidence rate (all age groups combined) of 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
There is part of the Côte d'Azur (including the Nice Metropolis), but also other, more rural areas, in the Loire, Cantal, Aveyron, Haute-Vienne, Seine-Maritime, the Somme or the Aisne.
In recent weeks, health authorities and the government have been looking beyond the incidence rate: the appearance of variants, which are more contagious, has become a source of concern.
Combined with a high incidence rate (867 cases per 100,000 inhabitants on February 10), it was the presence of the South African variant in Mayotte that prompted the government to reconfine the archipelago for at least three weeks, in early February. .
The data concerning the distribution of variants are still not very precise.
According to the latest figures published by Public Health France, reporting on its latest “Flash survey”, launched at the end of January, 17.5% of new contaminations identified in France were due to a variant (British, Brazilian or South African).
During a press conference on Thursday, the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, estimated that the share of contaminations due to the British variant should then represent 20 to 25% of new cases.
Majority variants in certain departments
Via figures published on Friday, Biogroup laboratories report a differentiated circulation of variants, according to the departments, from February 1 to 7.
In Ile-de-France, the British variant begins to defeat the original strain of the virus.
It is even in the majority in Yvelines (54% of positive tests).
In Paris and its inner suburbs, the proportion of positive cases attributable to the British variant is between 40% and 46%.
The British variant is present in the Center-Val de Loire region, in the Pays de la Loire, in eastern France and on the Côte d'Azur (up to 46% in the Alpes-de-Haute-Provence ).
In Corsica, more than one in five positive tests in Biogroup laboratories was, over the same period, from the British variant.
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In Dunkirk, the ARS reveals that on an analysis of several thousand tests, 72% of positive tests were from the British strain.
In the neighboring Hauts-de-Flandres intermunicipal association, its share was 81%, up 62% between February 5 and 11.
The spread of the British variant in these territories could explain the resurgence of the epidemic in recent days.
Brazilian and South African variants that progress
The South African and Brazilian variants are also progressing.
According to figures from Biogroup, cases have been traced in eight regions.
But while it is limited everywhere else to a few cases, the share of these variants is worrying in the North-East.
From February 1 to 7, between 17 and 33% of positive cases in Biogroup laboratories were from South African and / or Brazilian strains in Moselle, Meurthe-et-Moselle and in the Vosges, as well as in smaller proportions in the neighboring departments of Haut-Rhin and Bas-Rhin.
Thursday, during a press conference, Olivier Véran had sounded the alarm concerning the Moselle, before going there the next day.
"We have identified in this department more than 300 cases of mutations suggestive of South African and Brazilian variants in the last four days", explained the Minister of Health.
On Saturday, it was finally decided that the situation did not require any new measures, while some elected officials called for local containment.
If these variants are worrying, it is because they could make new contaminations jump in a few days while France is currently on a plateau. The new variants, according to several studies, are 40 to 50% more contagious than the original strain of Covid-19. Asked Friday about the government's means of action to respond to epidemic rebounds in certain territories, government spokesman Gabriel Attal warned: "If there are measures to be taken at the local level, they will be taken. . "
