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Coronavirus: strong drop in cases in Argentina after the peak of the summer, with 16 percent fewer patients than in January

2021-02-18T10:16:13.831Z


February saw the largest single-month decline in the pandemic so far. Today there are 145,630 active infected. In January it had reached a peak of 173,640. New cases also fell 36%. The causes.


Pablo Sigal

02/18/2021 6:01 AM

  • Clarín.com

  • Society

Updated 02/18/2021 6:01 AM

The planets still cannot align in Argentina during the coronavirus pandemic, but at least some positive data are helping to digest other negative ones.

In recent weeks, a

sharp decline in new cases of Covid-19

has been observed

.

That is one of the explanations that the balance of Argentines currently infected has

dropped by 16 percent in 30 days

.

This is the biggest drop

for a single month

in this health crisis so far.

The data emerges as a balm at a time complicated by the

lack of vaccines

and the alert due to variations in the virus genome, which could worsen the health situation.

Reality indicates that at this point in February there are

 145,630 people infected

with coronavirus throughout the country, a figure that is practically equal to that of November last year.

The figure indicates, apparently, that the consequences of the

“lack of control” at the end of the year and the summer

would have been definitely behind us.

Those 145 thousand are the 

Covid patients who still have the disease

, which result from subtracting the number of recovered and the number of deaths from the total number of accumulated cases.

Today, despite the fact that the number of people who came into contact with the virus in Argentina already

exceeds two million

, the active infected are almost the same as when the country counted a total of 1,318,384 positives, on November 16.

This February decline came after a

sharp increase between December and January

.

As of mid-January there were 173,640 active cases of coronavirus, which was

35 percent more

than there were in mid-December: 127,928.

It was that end of the year that, between popular gatherings and family gatherings, ended up causing a second

unexpected peak.

The first peak had occurred in

October

, when the mark was

161,385 active cases

, which represented 38 percent more than the balance in September, when 116,836 were registered.

This last number, in the same way, meant a strong jump of 62 percent compared to August, when active cases totaled 71,738.

An operation in Tucumán to detect new cases of coronavirus.

The course shows that in the last six months, between August and February, the number of active coronavirus patients

doubled

.

That growth could have been less had it not been mediated by those social events that triggered the contagion.

The curve

fell sharply towards mid-December

, when the rebound occurred.

The rapid denouement of the new peak in a new and steep decline suggests that what happened between the end of the year and the beginning of this year was, in fact, that rebound effect and

not a second wave itself

, which experts expect when Winter is approaching and most of the activities are moved indoors, including face-to-face classes.

Another pattern of how the number of active patients is decreasing is the difference between the increase in cases and total recovered: in the last six months the first variable grew

seven times

, while the second one grew

8.7 times

.

This determined that the proportion of recovered patients was increasing: today it is

90 percent

, when in August it was

73 percent.

The new challenge, the face-to-face classes that began this Wednesday in the City in the midst of a pandemic.

Photo: Maxi Failla

This index places Argentina well above the world average, which is

77 percent

.

Brazil, for example, has 89.5 percent recovered;

Italy, with 82 percent;

Spain, 77 percent;

Mexico, 78 percent;

Chile, 94.6 percent;

and Colombia, 95 percent.

The growing proportion of people cured is directly related to a

greater exposure to the virus in the younger

and less vulnerable population, which usually overcome the disease without major shocks, in addition to requiring a shorter recovery time and fewer hospitalizations.

This has been increasing the

total number of recovered

over that of cases, to turn the balance more and more towards the first group.

To this is added another more obvious cause: so far in February there were

105,271 new registered Covid infections

, while in the same number of days in January there were 164,409: 

a decrease of 36%.

From the conjunction of

both factors

, that is, a low balance of active patients as well as the number of new infections, it can be seen that at least in the medium term the statistics would continue to

favor Argentina

, provided that the preventive care persists and mutations do not tail.

Today there are, indeed,

fewer people in the country

in a position to infect others.


This results, at the same time, a respite for the 

internments

, especially in intensive care units (ICUs).

This allows the Government to continue to sustain a certain level of economic activity without resorting to

restrictions and isolation again

.

It is even possible for him to take new risks and challenges, such as support for the return of face-to-face classes throughout the national territory.

The peak of occupied beds in the public sector was registered on November 1, with 5,119 patients, while this Wednesday that figure was

3,573

.

That is,

30 percent less

.

A characteristic of this “summer rebound” is that the number of ICUs used remained unchanged, since the increase in the curve of cases did not correlate with that of severe symptoms.

$

Look also

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta: “We couldn't afford another year without face-to-face classes”

Coronavirus in Brazil: alarm in Rio due to the appearance of British and Amazonian strains in several patients

Source: clarin

All life articles on 2021-02-18

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