It therefore spread in due course.
"We said two months and we are there," says infectious disease specialist Yazdan Yazdanpanah, member of the scientific council.
While the very first case was detected at the end of December in Tours, the English variant, more contagious, now represents half of Covid cases in France, going from 3% at the beginning of January to 49.3%, according to figures from last week.
“It's a safe bet that we have exceeded this threshold in recent days, specifies Pascal Crépey, epidemiologist in Rennes.
We can therefore say that it has become the majority ”.
It is even higher than 50% in 33 departments, which are often very populated.
Ile-de-France, Paca and Hauts-de-France are among the most affected regions.
As for the proportion of South African or Brazilian strains, they amount to 5.6% nationally and more than 10% in eleven departments.
As a result, the health situation, although very heterogeneous from one department to another, is deteriorating.
After two weeks of decline, the number of contaminations increased by 8%, according to Public Health France (SPF).
And the R, which represents the average number of people a sick person will infect, has climbed to 1.4, but it must remain below 1 for the epidemic to be under control.
“Unfortunately, the probability that the situation will deteriorate is very high,” says Professor Yazdanpanah.
An analysis shared by Santé Publique France.
"A worsening of the epidemic is envisaged in the coming weeks," confirms the agency.
"Without control measures, there is a risk of having an increase in hospitalization needs which could quickly exceed capacities," explains Daniel Lévy-Bruhl, epidemiologist at SPF.
But we will not allow the R to increase to a level such that it would threaten the health system, ”he warns, while measures in twenty“ high-risk ”departments are expected next week and that Dunkirk and Nice are confined for the first time this weekend.
The threat of the South African variant
So the 75-day curfew will not have served any purpose?
Yes, but these measures are insufficient in the face of the breakthrough of variants.
"Without their dissemination, they would have made it possible to control the epidemic, we now know that they work at least on conventional strains," continues Daniel Lévy-Bruhl.
For several weeks, the equilibrium, even at a high level, was maintained, the historical virus gradually diminishing while the English variant spread until it takes precedence today.
From then on, a shower of questions arose.
Do the 33 departments where it circulates at more than 50% risk “contaminating” the others even more?
“No, answers epidemiologist Pascal Crépey.
These regions, for reasons we do not know, are ahead of the epidemic.
There is no risk of an oil stain effect, except perhaps in Moselle, where the South African strain represents 40% of cases ”.
This South African variant, precisely, can it also spread widely?
“We can't really know,” resumes Daniel Lévy-Bruhl.
Today, the English variant is in the majority, a priori there is no reason for the trend to be reversed but we must remain vigilant, we do not know what place it will take ”.
The scenario would be catastrophic since the first data show that most vaccines would be less effective against the South African strain.
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Will confinement on weekends be able to stem their spread?
For the moment, there is no data on this measure tested for the first time but, according to epidemiologist Pascal Crépey, it is not the option which seems to him the most relevant insofar as the infections occur mainly during times of activity, in the workplace or at school and indeed, during the week.
"But nothing says that this measure will not provoke a reaction in the population which, faced with the threat, will respect barrier gestures more".
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At least, this confinement will limit the mixing of the population "I think it's effective," says Professor Yazdanpanah.
A question remains and all specialists ask themselves: "Will this decision be sufficient?"
That, nobody knows ”.