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Covid-19: has the situation improved in the departments under reinforced surveillance?

2021-03-11T11:58:36.077Z


The majority of these territories have been the subject of additional measures for two weeks. For the moment, the government does not foresee any


23 departments, but very contrasting situations.

These territories, mainly located in a north-eastern quarter and in the south-east of the country, were placed under "reinforced" surveillance by the government on February 25 or March 4 for three of them.

The reason ?

The epidemiological situation linked to Covid-19 is of particular concern to the authorities.

Shopping centers of over 10,000 m² have had to close as prefects have been encouraged to ban alcohol consumption in certain places.

A kind of "fear effect" could also encourage the population to respect health instructions more.

Two weeks later, Olivier Véran's new press conference scheduled for Thursday evening is an opportunity to look at how the epidemic has evolved.

The indicator mainly put forward by the government is the incidence rate, that is to say the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the past week.

It is still above 200 in 22 of these 23 departments and the alert threshold of 250 has been exceeded in 17 of them.

Developments compared to the previous week vary greatly.

The incidence is still increasing - but more slightly than at the end of February - in those located in Île-de-France, and especially in Aube (+ 18.9%).

This territory of the Grand Est region has been one of the three “targets” for only a week.

It is also that of metropolitan France where the proportion of the so-called “British” variant B.1.1.7, estimated between 30 and 70% more contagious and possibly also more lethal, circulates the most (83.8% of new cases).

This could partly explain why the epidemic is progressing so much there.

An effect of confinement in the Alpes-Maritimes?

Still, the incidence has decreased in one week in the majority of these 23 departments.

The drop is particularly marked in the south-eastern quarter of the country, as in the Drôme (-16.4%), the Alpes-Maritimes and the Hautes-Alpes (-14% each).

But beware, in some of them, the number of tests carried out is also in sharp decline.

"I always try to be very careful with regard to the incidence rates, which depend enormously on the number of tests", points out the epidemiologist Pascal Crepey, referring to the fact that if one seeks less, one will find less.

In the Alpes-Maritimes, the drop is even equivalent to that of new cases.

Conversely, the number of tests carried out has increased in the Drôme, a sign that the health situation is really improving there.

According to Pascal Crepey, to think that the weekend confinement on the coast of the Alpes-Maritimes has produced effects is thus “very slightly hasty” and “would not make sense”.

Not only did screening drop, but the measure only came into effect on February 27.

However, a period of eight days - the latest incidence rates date from three days ago - is too short to establish its effectiveness, especially since many other parameters may be taken into account.

The confinement over the weekend was also extended, announced government spokesman Gabriel Attal on Wednesday.

"If the dynamics of reduction of the epidemic and the incidence continue", the measure could be lifted next week.

In the Pas-de-Calais department, it must still last at least three weeks.

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“The most relevant indicators for measuring the evolution of the situation are the hospital indicators, but they have the big drawback of being late,” continues Pascal Crepey.

Indeed, the effects of a particular measure on hospitalizations are necessarily longer to appear, because a person who tests positive generally does not need to go to the hospital immediately.

The activity of care services is, however, already "particularly worrying in three regions, Île-de-France, Hauts-de-France, the South region [the tourist name of Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Editor's note] ”, recognized Gabriel Attal.

"Easier to enter than to leave"

In Île-de-France, more than 1,000 severely affected patients have been treated in intensive care since Tuesday, an occupancy rate compared to the initial capacity of close to 85%.

More than 100 patients are admitted there every day and such levels had not been reached since the peak of the second wave in November.

No new restrictions are however planned in the Ile-de-France region.

"We believe that it is still possible to control the situation without additional measures", justifies a government source.

The same goes for Paca, where the intensive care occupancy rate exceeds 100%.

But the drop in the incidence rate started ten days ago gives some hope for a lull in hospitals in the coming days.

Daily intensive care admissions there have been more or less stable for a week.

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Other departments, which are not in the list of 23, also display worrying virological indicators. In two territories, Gard and Eure, the incidence is almost equal to 250 and this rate has increased, respectively, by 22% and 12%. According to our information, the trend this Thursday morning is that none of them integrates the list of the most at risk territories. The government highlights in particular the occupancy rate of Covid patients in intensive care at the regional level, which amounts to "only" 50.8% in Occitania and 59.6% in Normandy. Conversely, it is not planned either that territories like the Drôme leave the list, also available on the site of the government. As one ministerial adviser summed it up, "it's easier to get in than out of it."

Source: leparis

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