When she picks up, Karine Lacombe apologizes.
“I am in a crisis meeting.
“Half an hour later, the head of infectious diseases at the Paris Saint-Antoine hospital comes out, with the latest news.
“This is it,” she recounts.
We are preparing to move to level 3 ”, in other words to significantly increase the number of Covid resuscitation beds.
For that, it is still necessary to push the walls, to deprogram 40% of the operations.
Day after day, concern grows in this region of France, the most densely populated, where more than 1080 people are currently in intensive care, very close to the record of 1138, reached during the peak of the second wave.
"A Ile-de-France is even admitted there every twelve minutes", alerted, this Thursday evening, Olivier Véran, the Minister of Health, particularly worried.
VIDEO. Covid-19: "dozens, even hundreds" of Ile-de-France patients could be evacuated, according to Véran
“Except that at that time, there were containment measures, we knew that after two to three weeks, this figure would go down.
Today we are unable to say when that will be the case, ”points out Karine Lacombe.
Jointly, the Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) makes the same observation.
“We are not far from the peak of the second wave but without braking measures.
"Faced with this great tension, the Minister of Health announced:" In Ile-de-France, dozens, even hundreds of patient transfers could take place this weekend.
»An unprecedented proportion.
If the situation remains very contrasted in the country, two other regions are also under close surveillance, Hauts-de-France and the Paca region.
In the north, the announcement fell: patients in critical care will be evacuated to Belgium.
As for the Marseille hospitals (AP-HM), 77 of the 81 Covid sheave places are occupied.
“We are still on a high plateau, but it is increasingly so.
For now, we're holding on.
"
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How? 'Or' What ?
At the end of February, the doctors called for help from their colleagues in the private sector.
“Fortunately, nurses and orderlies came to help,” says the AP-HM.
But if that continues, we will have to go further than 40% deprogramming and that… we cannot envisage it ”.
Far too many young patients hospitalized
What about the hospital pressure across the country?
In France, the number of Covid patients in intensive care is increasing significantly.
The authorities have noticed an increase in serious forms since the variants circulated, "this would explain why at a stabilized epidemic level, resuscitations are filling up so quickly", detailed Olivier Véran.
This figure rose from 3,555 on March 1 to more than 4,000 this Thursday evening.
This is 900 less than during the peak of the second wave of November 16 and far from the 7019 of April 8, a record reached during the first high tide.
"It does not rise very quickly, but in a robust way", confirms Jean-Stéphane Dhersin, specialist in epidemic modeling at the CNRS.
As for hospitalizations, which concern 24,858 patients, the situation is more mixed.
This figure decreases in the oldest, surely an effect of the vaccination, but it increases in the 30-70 years.
"As the English variant is more contagious, it circulates more among the youngest, logically hospitalizations are increasing", explains infectious disease specialist Karine Lacombe.
The Minister of Health warned: “Hospital pressure will continue to rise.
»Impossible at this stage to know when the peak will take place.
And if it becomes too strong, new measures will not impose to "save lives", warned the minister.
Excess cancer mortality expected to soar
In the meantime, we take out the latest weapons: patients treated in the city, home oxygen, strengthened mobilization of the private sector, deprogramming.
But until when ?
And for what consequences?
“The situation is deteriorating exactly as we had expected, laments Axel Kahn, the president of the National League against cancer.
The Head of State made the bet, not to reconfine, but in terms of health, it is catastrophic.
"
The crisis has caused 100,000 delays in diagnosis and treatment.
And while excess cancer-related mortality was estimated at 45,000 deaths in the next five years, it could now reach 60,000 deaths.
“The toll will be extremely heavy, warns the geneticist.
The worst thing is not the confinement, it is to prolong this state of tension in the hospital because it prevents to treat correctly.
"