One curve which rises and the other which falls, clearly.
From there to establish a causal link between vaccination coverage on the one hand, and mortality in nursing homes on the other?
The daily number (on average over the past week) of residents with Covid-19 and who died in their place of residence fell from 100 in early February to less than 20 to 12 March.
If we also take into account those hospitalized and then died in hospital, we went from more than 150 to less than 40 deaths per day on average.
This number also includes people living in medico-social establishments, but these represent only a small part.
Meanwhile, as of March 11, 87.4% of nursing home and long-term care unit residents have received at least one dose of vaccine and 66.3% have received two doses, according to estimates. of Public Health France.
In the vast majority of cases, Pfizer was administered to them.
Since this Saturday, room visits and permissions are again authorized, as announced to us on Friday evening by the Minister in charge of Autonomy, Brigitte Bourguignon.
"I don't see any other possible explanation"
In its last weekly epidemiological update published this Thursday, Public Health France clearly notes a "decrease in deaths in establishment and in hospital deaths", but specifies that "the consolidation of data will confirm the observed evolution".
"Information feedback is not always immediate, so the current figures may be a little underestimated," confirms Yann Reboulleau, who manages 17 nursing homes located across France.
But for him, no doubt, it is vaccination that is at the origin of this trend.
And this, especially since the level of circulation of the virus in the general population has remained very high since the beginning of January.
“Quite frankly, rationally, I don't see any other possible explanation.
To have fully experienced this crisis for a year, we have never been able to prevent the entry of the virus into our establishments ”, he indicates.
Public Health France also considers more than likely that the drop in the various indicators among the elderly, and in particular among nursing home residents, is explained by vaccination.
"You should not shy away from your pleasure, it is clearly a success", rejoices Pascal Champvert, president of the Association of Directors in the Service of the Elderly (AD-PA).
The number of positive cases is also down sharply
However, it should be kept in mind that the impact of the vaccine cannot be immediate.
The first dose of Pfizer would be 85% effective against symptomatic forms after two to four weeks, according to an Israeli study published on February 19.
And maximum protection is expected a week after the second injection.
The numbers of clusters and positive cases are also down sharply, suggesting that the vaccine also works against transmission.
From March 1 to 7, 3,025 confirmed cases were identified in nursing homes, about half among residents and half among staff.
It is three times a month that during the first week of February.
And the gap between the number of residents and that of contaminated staff has melted over the weeks.
However, vaccination coverage is much less advanced among these professionals working in nursing homes.
All of these elements may justify the relaxation of the restrictions imposed on residents and families, in force since this Saturday.
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Yann Reboulleau, he had not waited.
“We have not had any more deaths or a cluster since the very beginning of January.
As I am one of the people who are rather libertarian, we resumed room visits from February 8 in vaccinated establishments during the first half of January.
"Pascal Champvert, he calls" to go further ", in particular by putting an end to the distance of 2 meters between the tables during meals.
