Spring returns this Saturday, but not the renewed optimism that we like to associate with it.
"Do you want to know if the coming weeks are going to be tough?"
That's for sure !
»Questions and answers immediately Professor Philippe Amouyel, epidemiologist at the University Hospital of Lille (North).
Regardless of the confinement that comes into force in sixteen departments (all those in the Ile-de-France and Hauts-de-France regions plus the Alpes-Maritimes, Eure and Seine-Maritime), accompanied by a cover- national fire at 19 hours, the warmth is not for now.
“There is always a lag between contamination and the worsening of the disease.
It is therefore necessary to count at least two to three weeks before hoping to see an effect of government measures.
In the meantime, at best the situation will stagnate, at worst it will deteriorate further, ”warns the public health specialist.
Clearly, in the red areas, resuscitations will remain congested.
For the rest, if Professor Amouyel refers to the models he produced during the first and second confinements, the number of contaminations - today between 30 and 40,000 per day - could drop by 30 to 40% per week, gradually releasing the pressure in the hospital.
With a few “details”: how will the population support the restrictions?
Will the vaccination increase at the same time?
Are the authorities going to rely on large-scale screening?
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Because the problem, in Hauts-de-France, as in Ile-de-France, is that we start from very low.
“We are already in an extremely tense situation.
We have already pushed the walls, ”recalls Professor Alain Cariou, crisis medical director of eight establishments in the North of Paris out of the 39 that have public assistance-Hospitals of Paris (AP-HP).
In Cochin alone, where he works as a resuscitator, 20 additional Covid beds have been opened in the past four weeks.
At the same time, 35% of non-Covid operations have been postponed.
One in three patients must wait to receive their care, with no foreseeable date.
"I'm afraid that is not enough"
So, even if he was waiting for them firmly, Alain Cariou remains worried.
"The measures will necessarily have an effect, but will they produce the effect really intended?
Will the impact be as massive as during the first containment?
I wish it with all my heart but I'm afraid that it is not enough, ”he breathes, urging everyone to respect the rules, even heavy and difficult.
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And for good reason, if the formula chosen by the government of reduced confinement does not work, the crisis medical director fears the worst.
“In three weeks, our already minimal margin will no longer exist.
Concretely, we fear an even more powerful wave, even more patients in critical care, even more deprogramming, ”he lists.
He does not believe in a "vaccination effect", with 7% of people protected in Ile-de-France.
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Reconfinement: Emmanuel Macron's new bet
"Faced with the gravity of the situation and the spread of variants, nothing can work without the package" restrictions + screening + strong acceleration of vaccination ".
You have to do like the English: vaccinate like crazy!
“Replies epidemiologist Philippe Amouyel.
To make up for the delay and the days lost by the temporary suspension (lifted, but only for people over 55) of the AstraZeneca serum, it would be necessary to immunize, according to the specialist, 400,000 people every day.
In Dunkirk, it is confirmed that the recession is not a quiet river.
“Since yesterday (
Editor's note: this Thursday
), we have the impression that it is just starting to drop,” notes an experienced nurse from the emergency department, broken for several weeks in transferring patients to Boulogne, Lille, Le Havre and even Belgium.
“What hit us hard were the younger patients, with very serious forms.
We're out of breath.
"And to the nurse to warn:" The epidemic is flaring up quickly, but it is slow to die out.
"