Adriana santagati
Irene Hartmann
03/20/2021 6:00 AM
Clarín.com
Society
Updated 03/20/2021 6:00 AM
Whether in Germany or Brazil, the data is the same and alarming in the same way, beyond the differences in the management of the pandemic on both sides of the ocean.
In this second wave, not only are there more cases of coronavirus among the youngest, but there are also
greater complications
.
Is that the scenario we are going to face in Argentina soon?
"In recent weeks,
cases are not only increasing in young people but in general,
" says Roberto Debbag, vice president of the Latin American Society of Pediatric Infectology.
So far in 2021 compared to the second half of 2020, there has already been an increase in the percentage of cases in the groups aged 10 to 30 years.
And if compared to the first half of last year, there is also a slight increase in the 40-50 band.
v 1.5
Evolution of the age of those infected
Source:
Own calculations based on Min. Of Health
Infographic:
Clarín
On the other side of the border, in Brazil, the panorama is already chaotic, with a record of cases and deaths that drive the debate on the closure of entry from the neighboring country.
The deaths of Brazilians aged 30 to 59 years began to increase in December and in almost three months they
went from 20% to almost 27% of the total
.
The AFP agency graphed it with the testimony of the doctors from the Emilio Ribas hospital in São Paulo.
There, half of the hospitalized patients are under 60 years old when a year ago they were 33.
And there is a prevalence of younger patients, without comorbidities, hospitalized with very serious conditions.
In Brazil, the percentage of the population that received at least one dose is 4.6%.
In Germany it is 8.6%, but there they are also seeing that “in hospitals, patients changed.
They are getting younger and younger, now they are the least protected,
"explained Lars Schaade, vice president of the Robert Koch Institute, the federal agency for disease prevention.
In the United Kingdom and Italy, as this newspaper had reported, an increase in cases was also reported among young people, including children and adolescents.
In countries where vaccination is advancing, the virus "collides" with immunized older adults and is looking for new paths: thus, the rate of infection among the younger population rises.
The vaccine itself is partly responsible for this paradigm shift
, but not the only or the most determining cause.
According to Debbag, the increase in these age groups is also related to a relaxation of care due to increased circulation and to “
a factor that is not talked about and that is very important in Argentina
: that the appropriate testing strategy is not carried out, tracking and isolation of people ”.
As in the beginning of the pandemic, once again the experts are raising the alarm that in the second wave that comes the "test, test, test" will be key.
In which there is also coincidence, despite the fact that the scientific evidence is still in permanent construction, is that the new variants, specifically the United Kingdom and Manaus,
are outlining this new “young face” that the pandemic now shows
.
“Most of the cases are from the Manaus variant.
There is a 20% drop in hospitalizations in those over 80, while the number of people under 60 in hospitals is the majority.
There is a significant number of young adults between 30 and 50 boarding schools, which is the base of the social pyramid.
Although 90% have mild disease, 10% is a huge number in absolute figures
”, analyzes the situation in Brazil by pulmonologist and researcher Renato Stein, director of the Infant Center in Brazil.
How and why are these variants impacting a greater number of cases?
According to Josefina Campos, researcher at ANLIS-Malbrán, "it is being studied because transmissibility and aggressiveness need epidemiological studies where the variants circulate and that takes time."
However, there are already some clues.
From the UK variant, for example, it was known from the beginning that it is up to 70% more transmissible, and now it has been determined that this is not only because of how the famous “spike protein” is associated with the receptor cell but also because of the very dynamics of replication of the virus that
triggers the viral load
.
But in addition, research that has just been published in the journal Nature suggests that this variant
is also linked to an increase in complications and mortality
.
Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine analyzed data from 17,452 deaths that occurred in Great Britain between September and February, estimating a 61% increased risk of death associated with variant B.1.1.7.
"Our analysis suggests that it is not only more transmissible than pre-existing variants but also causes more severe disease," they noted.
Workers from a Manaus cemetery bury a Covid victim.
Photo EFE
Mutations of the Manaus variant also
make it more transmissible and are associated with hospitalization
.
"There is an observation that it
may indirectly cause more mortality,
" adds Stein.
For Debbag, in Argentina we have undetected community circulation of this variant, which caused a “viral spill” from the Amazon to the cosmopolitan cities of Brazil and from there to the rest of the countries.
And that has an additional complication in the
probability of reinfection
: "Months ago we said that reinfections were infrequent, but with this variant it is seen that it is more frequent."
The expert warns that the scenario we face in Argentina is complicated if there are no strategic changes.
And he talks about the
“Hurricane Covid”
for which
four variables
influence
: more contagious and severe variants with a spill-over effect on our country;
relaxation of the population in sanitary measures together with less testing;
probability of reinfection with the new variants;
and delay in vaccination.
“If between this month and May 7.4 million people over 60 years old are not vaccinated, mortality will be very high.
And I must also vaccinate 5 million more who have comorbidities.
If I don't do it quickly, this is a level 5 hurricane,
”he graphs.
ACE
Look also
A dose or two: is the change in vaccination strategy that the Government wants to make correct?
Coronavirus: Find out why the UK variant is up to 70% more contagious