A study claims that a "perfect storm", which included the condition of the first patient, and a rare transfer via bats, were what led to the outbreak • "The chances were 30%"
Research: "Without the storm - the corona would not have erupted."
In the photo: the city of Wuhan, where the epidemic broke out
Photo:
IPI
A study conducted at the University of Arizona in collaboration with virus experts from other research institutions claims that the spread of the corona virus around the world was in fact a "perfect storm" - and that under other conditions we would not have heard of the disease at all.
According to the head of the research team, Prof. Michael Vorobi, an expert in evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona, "This was a really rare reality. If the sick person who spread the virus at the Wuhan Animal Market had not hit the market that day, or been too sick, the virus would not have spread. There were also a number of other rare coincidences that led to the corona erupting and spreading. "
In an article published in the prestigious journal Science, the researchers note that "humans may be constantly infected with new viruses, but usually the viruses do not infect enough people or do not spread - so we do not hear about them."
In addition, the researchers tried to track down the first time the virus broke out, and their conclusions contradict reports in continental Europe.
Professor Joel Wertheim, a member of the Division of Infectious Diseases and Public Health at the University of California, says that "Patient No. 1 or the first case of infection and migration to a human was probably towards mid-October 2019. This is the earliest limit when examined in depth. In fact, by December there were almost no cases, and it was only in December that cases of the virus began to appear in the Hobi province of China. This completely refutes reports from Europe and the US about the appearance of the virus in different countries earlier.
It was only in December that the virus began to spread in the province - and not before. "
The researchers also tried to check how the virus was transmitted to humans but did not find out who the animal from which the virus was transmitted to humans was.
They are convinced that there is a close connection between the corona and the bats but also that it is likely that another animal was the cause of the transition to humans.
"The virus needed great luck"
According to Prof. Warobi, "There are always flu viruses, such as swine flu, that reach the markets and infect humans. In relation to Corona, the virus really needed a lot of luck."
In fact, according to the researchers' mathematical models, the virus had a 30 percent chance of becoming an epidemic, even under perfect conditions.
Regarding the source of the onset of the outbreak, the researchers estimate that "the virus did not start in Wuhan's own market - but in a closed rural community. It circulated among a few people in October and November, and only in December did it reach the market.
The researchers also point out that the reason the corona was successful is also related to the fact that the virus is less deadly than the SARS that broke out in 2002-2004.
According to them, it was the low lethality of the virus that helped it spread before the authorities noticed it and could take steps to stop it.