The photo illustrating this article seems to date from another time.
Yet she is less than a year old.
It was at the very beginning of June 2020: the weather was fine, the terraces were once again welcoming customers, delighted to meet around a coffee or to spin the beer dispensers.
“The reopening of cafes, hotels and restaurants signals the return of happy days!
»Congratulated Emmanuel Macron on Twitter.
A second wave, and five months of confinement or curfew later, the question of ending the crisis is gradually returning to the public debate.
The vaccination campaign went through this and opinions diverge somewhat when we talk about these famous "happy days".
Government spokesman Gabriel Attal recently said he hoped “a return to a more normal life” by mid-April.
The Minister of Health Olivier Véran spoke, him, of next fall with the Parisian.
And to cut the pear in two, Thierry Breton, the “Mister vaccines” of Europe, launched a symbolic objective by ensuring that immunity could be reached on… July 14th.
What is immunity?
By immunity, Commissioner Breton speaks of what scientists call “collective immunity”.
That is to say the percentage of the protected population necessary to stop the transmission of the virus.
It can be reached in two ways, by contamination (a person who catches the virus will generate antibodies) but also - and especially - by vaccination.
Because we do not yet really know how long and to what extent people who are already infected are protected.
On the other hand, the effectiveness of vaccines is proven.
Concerning SARS-CoV-2, researchers and scientists generally start from a rate of 70% of the population.
“Some even go as high as 80% due to the arrival of variants, which are more transmissible.
And the immunity must be complete, that is to say that people have received two doses of vaccine, ”says Eric Billy, researcher in immuno-oncology and member of the collective Du Côté de la Science.
"Protection is already substantial with a single dose, but immunity is when everyone has followed the vaccination schedule recommended by the European Medicines Agency", adds epidemiologist Antoine Flahault, director of the Institut de global health of Geneva.
What the figures say about deliveries expected in Europe
At this stage, Europe plans to receive 322 million doses of vaccines by the end of May, said Thierry Breton.
By applying the rule of distribution according to population, France should in theory have 15% of this total, or 49.3 million doses.
This fits perfectly with the table of dose deliveries sent to the Parisian by the Ministry of Health this Monday morning.
When contacted, the European Commission, however, prefers not to adopt the very term collective immunity.
"It is a concept on which there is no scientific consensus", we are told.
In the corridors of Brussels, we therefore make the 70% of the vaccinated population a purely quantitative objective.
Whatever its health repercussions.
"By receiving all the expected doses, we would be able to definitively vaccinate 250 million European citizens in the summer, that is to say 70% of the adult population", one explains.
As for France, the government anticipates rising to nearly 73 million doses at the end of June, subject to no further delay being announced by one of the four laboratories whose vaccine is already distributed (Pfizer, Moderna , AstraZeneca and Janssen) and that CureVac is indeed authorized on the market.
This number should be taken with caution since it corresponds to the upper range of what the EU expects.
Assuming that all vaccines (except Janssen) must be injected twice and with a loss of 5% of the doses received, this gives the capacity to immunize 38 million people.
Or ... a bit more than 70% of the adult population.
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From there to achieving immunity on July 14, as announced by Thierry Breton for the European continent?
"The person in charge of the distribution of vaccines makes this commitment, I rather want to take note and consider it as good news", judges the epidemiologist Antoine Flahault.
“If we can speed up the pace of vaccination, we should be able to do so.
But what bothers me is that there is not yet sufficient momentum, ”worries infectious disease specialist François Bricaire, member of the Academy of Medicine.
He realizes it himself, since he vaccines at the Hôtel-Dieu “every morning”.
" I do not believe it.
We will potentially have enough to vaccinate everyone, but it will take time, ”says Eric Billy, recalling that the recommended gap between the two AstraZeneca doses is 9 to 12 weeks.
So when are happy days?
In his eyes, the goal of having vaccinated 70% of the adult population "by the end of the summer", as set by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, is achievable.
“It is quite plausible.
But it will then be necessary to launch the vaccination of children and young people to put an end to any possible resurgence of the epidemic ", estimates Eric Billy, for whom the return of happy days is rather to be hoped for" in the last quarter of 2021 ".
For the moment, no vaccine is intended for minors.
But several laboratories, including Moderna, have launched studies on the subject.
At this stage, the European Commission does not publicly consider vaccination of children.
On happy days, it could also start with moments of reunion with family or friends, and not necessarily a total reopening of cinemas and other social activities.
"We are preparing the reopening of closed establishments, in successive stages, without necessarily communicating a lot on it," says a government source.
We have learned to be careful.
We talked about happy days last year and the epidemic has caught up with us.
"
This time, we have an additional weapon.
"If you are 100% vaccinated around a dining table during a family reunion, for example, it will be the start of a return to normal because there will no longer be any need to respect barrier gestures" , anticipates Antoine Fahault.
Subject, he recalls, "that the variants do not escape the vaccine".
An annual vaccination, like the flu?
Several laboratories have already announced that they were ready to quickly develop a new formula for their vaccine, but it would then be necessary to transplant a good part of the inhabitants.
Or long weeks or even several additional months.
The return to a more normal life is not necessarily synonymous with the end of the epidemic, recalls another ministerial source.
“These are milestones that we want to cross.
Ten million vaccinated in mid-April, it is already the hope of desembolizing the resuscitation services.
In the summer, we should be able to go further with the acceleration of vaccinations.
The politician says he wants to take into account issues that go beyond the scientific framework.
At the time of confining themselves last year, and despite the extension of confinement, the French had always kept in mind this release which would eventually happen.
This time, spirits are wracked by months of restrictions and the sensation of an endless epidemic.
“We are all living in a special period, times are hard and it is essential for us to speak from the end of the tunnel, continues our government source.
It is also part of crisis management.
These outcomes do not necessarily imply the outright disappearance of the virus, while many uncertainties remain.
It is not yet clear whether the vaccines actually prevent the transmission of the virus.
It is also not known whether the epidemic will require annual vaccination like the flu.
But it is important to keep in mind that there will be an after.
»Give deadlines, to bring the French closer to the end of the crisis.
Without being able, unfortunately, to be categorical.
