To confine drastically or not?
From when and how?
By addressing the French on Thursday evening, Emmanuel Macron began to prepare the spirits.
"In the coming days and weeks to come, we will have new measures to take", announced the Head of State, while the epidemic situation seems out of control despite the last turns of the screw "territorialized and decided in 16 then 19 departments.
To obtain real effects on the epidemic curves, both on the incidence rate of the spread of Covid-19 and on the pressure on the intensive care hospital services, all the specialists, doctors and researchers working on predictive mathematical models , are counting on a long duration.
“At least one month from this weekend,” estimates Dr. Eric D'Ortenzio, epidemiologist at Inserm.
Observations show that the length of hospital stay is currently longer than that observed so far.
People spend three or four more days in intensive care due to the British variant, and those intubated stay 21 days in hospital.
A way out of the crisis also means that the incidence drops sharply and that we manage to stabilize the number of daily cases.
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Mircea Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology at the University of Montpellier (Hérault), is on the same line.
“According to my models, it would be necessary to confine strictly, as in March 2020, at least for six weeks, judges this specialist.
This deadline would make it possible to find an incidence rate below 5,000 new cases per real day, the threshold set by Emmanuel Macron in November to accept deconfinement.
We would also arrive at less than 2000 patients in intensive care and a less active circulation of the virus.
It all depends on the health objectives set, in particular at the level of hospital occupation.
Currently, Covid-19 patients are being cared for at the expense of deprogrammed patients.
We will then have to catch up.
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"The greatest unknown: the level of wear and tear of the French"
According to the analysis carried out by researchers at the Institut Pasteur, the duration of the first period of confinement, from March 17 to May 11, 2020, made it possible to reduce the rate of transmission of the virus by 77% and to "break the dynamic" exponential growth in hospitalizations ”.
Should we then accurately reproduce the measures taken in the spring of last year?
The period is no longer the same.
On the one hand, the variants of Covid-19, British or South African, have appeared and have upset the forecasts.
On the other hand, the vaccination campaign, even sluggish, begins to produce its first positive effects.
These are all elements that can disrupt predictive calculations that are very sensitive to external factors.
"It is neither the variants nor the vaccination, the effects of which are perfectly integrated into our calculations, that concern me," warns Samuel Alizon, researcher at the CNRS and research director of the Infectious Diseases and Vectors: Ecology, Genetics, Evolution and Control laboratory. (Mivegec) from Montpellier (Hérault).
The biggest unknown today is based on the level of weariness and weariness of the French and its influence on their ability to accept a return of very strict measures.
There is a lot of play with words today, but the curfew measures have been very difficult to live with.
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"We are also paying for the fact that France has not invested enough in education by explaining, as we researchers - we repeat - that the earlier we take measures, the more they produce effects and the less they last, considers this specialist in the evolution of infectious diseases.
The countries which have used the zero Covid-19 strategy will also resort to reconfinements, but in a much localized manner and over much shorter periods than the countries which have let the epidemic slip away.
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