At a time when Emmanuel Macron persists and signs about his strategy to try to contain the epidemic, a new European study could confirm or refute these decisions.
It could also give arguments to the various sectors (catering, culture) which require a reopening.
For this research, which has not yet been peer-reviewed for publication in a trade journal, scientists looked at the effectiveness of 17 different measures to curb the epidemic.
They were thus able to establish a ranking of their usefulness against the spread of the coronavirus.
From August 1 to January 9, they studied the evolution of the number of Covid cases and deaths in 114 regions of seven European countries such as Austria, the Czech Republic, England, Germany, Italy , the Netherlands and Switzerland.
The implementation of the restrictions could have helped scientists analyze the effects of each, unlike the first wave where most countries decided on total lockdowns combining several measures.
The researchers chose to focus on a regional scale because of "the heterogeneity of the second wave because, like the UK, there were strong north-south geographic divides, meaning that the analysis on a national scale would have masked the increases in transmission ”.
They were thus able to deliver "the first estimates of the effects of restrictions during the second wave" by expressing them as estimates of reduction in the number of contaminations.
Useful closures of restaurants, much less of places of culture
First observation: the measures of the first wave, a generalized confinement almost everywhere, were more effective than those of the second wave.
As a result, around 80% against 66% reduction in contamination.
Understanding the importance of barrier gestures and the need to ventilate enclosed spaces, which have become part of our daily lives, also had an additional effect.
Without forgetting the low level of immunity of infected people.
In detail, we discover, without too much surprise, that the effectiveness of the closures of bars and restaurants (12%) as well as nightclubs (12%) are at the top of the reduction in Covid-19 traffic. , at the same level as shops providing so-called “non-essential” services such as hairdressing and beauty salons (12%).
Morning essentials newsletter
A tour of the news to start the day
Subscribe to the newsletterAll newsletters
Conversely, as members of the culture sector are booming, the closure of museums, theaters and cinemas would have caused a reduction in the spread of the virus by only 3%.
All the closures of these places have the effect of reducing the risk of reproduction of the virus by 35%.
An addition of measures which is more effective than the prohibitions on regrouping which would make it possible to reduce transmissions by 26%.
"We can see that the gauge of 30 people is very high," notes epidemiologist Mahmoud Zureik, professor of epidemiology and public health at the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines.
Thanks to the scope of this work, the researchers were able, logically, to observe that the smaller the number of people authorized during gatherings, the greater the reduction in contamination.
The ideal is not to gather with more than two people, as has been the case in Germany (more than 20% efficiency).
As a reminder, in France, the government has just recalled that groups of more than six people, in public spaces, were prohibited and subject to verbalization.
Schools, curfews and mask wear
Another series of measures that directly concern the French and which have been at the heart of the news in recent days: the closure of schools and, to a lesser extent, the curfew.
If the closure of all schools has, according to scientists, been highly effective in the first half of 2020, it is less the case this time.
The study notes that it enabled a 7% reduction in contamination.
READ ALSO>
Covid-19: why is it so hard to know which places are at risk?
“It's completely normal, considers Mahmoud Zureik.
The strict protocols put in place at school in these countries are effective.
This reduces the usefulness of closures ”.
European researchers confirm: "Without sufficient measures, the opening of schools could lead to a resurgence".
Put in place for more than five months in certain French regions, the curfew has a "moderate but statistically significant" effect according to this research.
The same applies to the wearing of the compulsory mask in public places.
“However, due to the broad nature of these interventions, they are also likely to interact with other measures,” the researchers write.
Evolution of behaviors, variants… The limits of this study
The authors also recognize that the evolution of individual behavior has had an effect that their work cannot measure.
During the first confinement, the "harshness" of unpublished decisions, the use of the word war by Emmanuel Macron for example, the culture of "the virus of fear", had an effectiveness on the behavior of the population that we find less on the long term.
In the same vein, we can also regret the lack of observation of teleworking.
As a reminder, 29% of contamination occurs in the workplace, according to a study by the Institut Pasteur.
READ ALSO>
"The longer we stay locked up, the better I am": the anxiety of hypochondriacs before deconfinement
Finally, scientists admit it: these observations do not take into account the emergence of variants and their characteristics, in particular the greater contagiousness, which could cause the analysis of the effectiveness of certain measures to evolve downwards.
“This study is very serious but is only valid for the historical strain of the virus, not the more contagious variants, judge Mahmoud Zureik.
We can see it clearly at the moment: with all this arsenal of measures, it is not enough, we do not control the epidemic.
It is difficult to do anything as effective as strict confinement, with closed schools ”.