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Corona test station in Tübingen
Photo: Sebastian Gollnow / dpa
Sometimes it's a single word that separates science from wishful thinking.
A call for tenders from Schleswig-Holstein states: "The model projects should document that cultural events are possible even in pandemic times with the help of an orderly test strategy." That.
Not whether. If it were there
,
the result would be open.
Science.
So the result is clear beforehand and should only be documented.
Wishful thinking.
This dangerous form of wishful thinking is taking hold in German politics in particular: that in the middle of the third corona wave you can open everything possible if you just set up a corona test tent and stick the "model project" sign on it.
Since the Prime Minister and the Chancellor made model projects possible in their resolution at the end of March, several hundred German municipalities have wanted to start such attempts, many have already applied to their state governments.
The onslaught shows how great the longing is after months of permanent shutdown, to dare to try something new, to offer perspectives.
And the basic idea is exactly right: to try out concepts at individual locations in order to be able to expand them if they are successful, to a region or perhaps the whole country.
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Unfortunately, the model projects are currently degenerating into haphazard opening steps without any gain in knowledge.
In Weimar, for example, the shops opened for three days this week for people with a negative corona rapid test.
There was no scientific support.
On the phone, community representatives from other places say frankly that they just hope for a little bit of normalcy.
However, they did not have a concept, only expressed their interest to the state government by letter.
Villingen-Schwenningen in Baden-Württemberg wants to open as permanently as possible - namely all areas »that are possible«, according to the administration on request.
The scientific analysis should be done by volunteers.
In Hesse, the state government leaves the municipalities free to decide whether a scientific evaluation is carried out at all.
The Saarland state government has immediately declared the entire state to be a model project.
In Schleswig-Holstein, a cultural project counts as successful »if the offer has been well received and the process and organization have proven themselves«, according to the state ministry, which incidentally is not only responsible for culture but also for science.
Tübingen as a model?
This is dangerous
Even in Tübingen, which serves as a model for many municipalities, the scientific benefit is questionable.
At the start of the project in mid-March, the local pandemic officer Lisa Federle said that one could find out how dangerous beer gardens are.
"It could be that it turns out, for example, that beer gardens are completely harmless," said Federle.
Mayor Boris Palmer (Greens) said this week that you now have to look at what prevails in the infection process: the negative effect due to the additional contacts or the positive effect due to the fact that infectious people are found faster.
If you ask exactly, you will find that the University Hospital Tübingen does not investigate any of these questions at all, even if it accompanies the experiment scientifically.
Rather, it is about recording how many positive rapid tests lead to a positive PCR result and asking those tested about their living conditions.
To be clear: So far there is no scientific evidence that the Tübingen model works.
Maybe after two weeks of trying it can't even exist.
The number of infections is also increasing in Tübingen.
Making the city a role model for Germany without any scientific basis is dangerous.
Because it raises hopes in the population, especially in a phase of the pandemic in which the number of infections is rising exponentially again and intensive care physicians are warning of an overload of the health system.
The rulers have made false promises too often in this pandemic.
Instead of dozens of Tübingen copies, Germany would need a real model project strategy.
Individual, clever ideas with clear definitions of when the project is a success - and when it is not.
With data that record the effects on the infection process and make the experiment comparable with other locations.
With the freedom that the projects may fail without being scourged in public.
Programs with enough money, because new methods are always expensive in the beginning and only become cheap later.
Science instead of wishful thinking.
Then the model projects could actually show ways out of the pandemic.