The IMF is revising its growth estimates for Italy for 2021 upwards. After a contraction of 8.9% in 2020, GDP is expected to grow this year by 4.2%, or 1.2 percentage points in more than the January forecast.
Compared to the estimate of 5.2% in October 2020, growth is instead one percentage point lower.
For 2022, the Fund expects GDP to increase by 3.6%, unchanged compared to January but one percentage point more than in October 2020. The Italian public debt is expected to rise in 2021 to 157.1% of GDP from 155, 6% in 2020. The Fund improves its estimate from October 2020, when it had forecasted debt of 158.3% for this year.
For 2022, the debt is estimated at 155.5% in 2022 (151.0% in 2026).
The deficit is expected to drop from 9.5% in 2020 to 8.8% this year, and then drop to 5.5% next time.
Unemployment will be at 10.3%.
The world economy is running faster than expected, with world GDP expected to grow by 6.0% this year, or 0.5 percentage points more than in January and 0.8 points more than October 2020. The IMF predicts this. estimating growth of 4.4% for next year, up by 0.2 percentage points compared to both January and October.
However, the Fund warns: "there is great uncertainty about the estimates" and even if growth accelerates "the future presents difficult challenges".
"The pandemic is not yet defeated and cases are accelerating in various countries. The recovery is at different speeds."
German GDP is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022, up by 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points respectively on the January estimates.
The IMF predicts this, also revising growth in France to 5.8% this year and 4.2% in 2022.
A way out of the health and economic crisis "is increasingly visible" but "the future presents challenges difficult ", with the pandemic" not yet defeated "and the recovery proceeding at different speeds between countries.
To take the picture of the state of the world economy is the International Monetary Fund which, in the World Economic Outlook, revised upwards the growth estimates for the world and beyond.
A revision largely linked to advanced economies, which are accelerating under the pressure of the United States, "the only major economy that will exceed the levels expected for 2022 in the absence of the pandemic. The other advanced economies, including the euro area, they will restart this year but at a slower rate, "said Gita Gopinath, the Fund's chief economist, stressing that governments must continue to support their economies even in the face of more limited budget space and higher public debt.
"This requires more targeted measures. At the moment the emphasis should be on getting out of the health crisis by prioritizing health spending - notes Gopinath -. Monetary policy should remain accommodative while proactively managing risks to stability. financial ".
In revising the estimates upwards, the Washington institute explains how thanks to the strong and decisive intervention of governments the worst was avoided even if the contraction of the world economy for 2020 was unprecedented.
In the absence of the stimuli, the contraction could have been three times greater and thanks to them "the scars that the recession from Covid will leave will be less than the 2008 financial crisis".
Despite the rosier picture than expected, there are still many uncertainties related to the trend of Covid, adds the Fund.
