A return to normal life thanks to vaccination? What the new Institut Pasteur study says

The return to a more normal life in the fall?

It is possible, but on condition of strongly accelerating the vaccination.

These are, to summarize, the conclusions of a new study by the Institut Pasteur, posted online this Tuesday.

This work, at the pre-publication stage, was based on the principle that vaccines reduced the risk of developing a severe form of the disease by 90% and that of being infected by 80%, and that the variant called "British »Resulted in greater contagiousness.

Prioritizing the elderly was a good strategy because it greatly reduced hospitalizations and deaths at the start of the campaign.

But that will not be enough.

Thus, it would be necessary to reach 90% of the entire adult population vaccinated next fall to be able to say goodbye to control measures, according to this work.

Will we be able to completely relax the controls this fall?

Our latest analysis assessing the impact of vaccination in the medium term is online.

https://t.co/Mq3Qjp68Hz pic.twitter.com/gms8dr4s2y

- Simon Cauchemez (@SCauchemez) April 6, 2021

"A total relaxation of control measures consists not only in resuming the life before but also in abandoning the test / trace / isolate", specifies Simon Cauchemez, head of the laboratory for the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases at the Institut Pasteur and lead author of the study.

The idea is to stay below the threshold deemed "acceptable" of 1,000 daily hospitalizations, beyond which France has been since mid-October.

More flexible restrictions than confinement?

This score of 90% seems extremely remote since only 17.6% of the adult population received at least one dose of vaccine at the beginning of April, including 5.9% having received two doses.

However, when Pasteur speaks of "vaccinated persons", it is indeed those who have received two injections (or only one for the Janssen vaccine) and therefore completely protected, even if the first dose is already producing effects.

If 90% of the population over 65 is vaccinated but only 70% of 18-64 year olds are, then control measures should "be maintained".

But let everyone be reassured: it will not be necessary a priori to go through real confinement.

The restrictions to be taken will have to reduce the transmission from 15 to 27%, while the putting under cover last spring had allowed to go up to 80% and that of last fall to 70%.

The “test, trace, isolate”, the wearing of the mask or even some restrictions of physical distancing could be enough.

READ ALSO>

End of the Covid-19 epidemic: July, autumn, 2022 ... when will the happy days return?

Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly promised that every adult Frenchman who wishes could have received a first dose "by the end of the summer".

But for such vaccine coverage of 90% or 70% of the adult population to be achieved, it will be necessary to refute the many studies carried out.

According to the latest CoviPrev survey by Public Health France, carried out from March 15 to 17, only 56% of people who have not yet been bitten say "certainly or probably wanting to be vaccinated".

Morning essentials newsletter

A tour of the news to start the day

Subscribe to the newsletterAll newsletters

“One of the strong messages that these models make it possible to convey is that even if I am not at risk, it is useful for me to be vaccinated so that we can return to a normal life.

If we only vaccinated the most vulnerable people, that would not be enough, ”says Simon Cauchemez, also a member of the Scientific Council.

The challenge of childhood vaccination

One solution would be to allow children and adolescents to be vaccinated, which is not currently planned.

It would be enough then that 60 to 69% of 0-64 years and 90% of over 65 years are immunized to be able to consider a "complete relaxation" of control measures in the fall.

Note that the Pasteur model does not distinguish people who have been infected, estimated at 30% of the population in the fall and for whom only one injection is recommended, from others.

"If it is shown that vaccines are safe and effective in children, vaccinating them could be interesting in order to reduce the circulation of the virus in this age group and not leave it capable of transmitting the virus to fragile people and unprotected, ”adds Simon Cauchemez.

Another advantage is that fewer doses would be necessary because the vaccines would then be "distributed more evenly in the population".

VIDEO.

In Paris, minute vaccination centers: “There is no waiting.

It's the vaccine that comes to you ”

As always, such projections (and not true “forecasts”) remain subject to the vagaries of the vaccination campaign and scientific data.

“You shouldn't be in the position of a staunch believer or a complete skeptic, but find some kind of happy medium.

I would be delighted if lower levels of immunization coverage were enough to return to normal life, ”replies Simon Cauchemez.

The last few months have been rich in adventures, in particular the many delays of the various laboratories. AstraZeneca, since he is primarily concerned with it, also has to deal with concerns about its product due to cases of post-vaccination thrombosis. The health authorities can assure that the benefit / risk ratio remains positive, the pace of AstraZeneca vaccination in France has slowed for five days.