The curve which goes down three days in a row, that had not happened since… the end of November.
The incidence rate, that is to say the number of cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants recorded over seven days, has increased from 688 to 660 in Ile-de-France, according to the latest available data, published on Saturday .
These figures remain extremely high, more than two and a half times the maximum alert threshold which had been set at 250. But this start of the trend is very encouraging.
Especially since the ratio is falling - slightly - in all age groups and screening is not weakening: more and more nasopharyngeal or salivary samples are taken every day in Île-de-France, more than 120,000 now. .
Does this mean that the "peak of the epidemic", to use the phrase repeatedly mentioned by the Minister of Health Olivier Véran has been reached in this region confined since March 20?
"Three days is not yet enough to declare that a real trend has started", responds, cautiously, the entourage of the Minister of Health.
The number of reproduction R "has decreased a lot but it remains a little above 1", adds epidemiologist Mircea T. Sofonea.
Clearly, an infected person infects almost one on average, according to this estimate.
But for this specialist, no doubt, by using "a retrospective calculation method", the real peak of contaminations in Ile-de-France happened "around March 29".
"We have already seen fluctuations but there is a basic trend which has returned the R to around 1, and that will not change suddenly," he anticipates.
While not hiding a certain relief, those around Olivier Véran recalled that "the incidence is good, but passing the epidemic peak does not mean that the health peak has passed".
Understand, the peak in hospital patients.
The values of hospitalizations and daily critical care entries, communicated every evening by Public Health France, are disrupted by Easter Monday during which many hospitals did not enter their data.
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Still, on the ground, doctors say they are already seeing a lull.
“The weekend ten days ago, we had around 50 rather severely affected Covid patients to take care of.
This weekend, we had a lot less, ”notes Olivier Bouchaud, head of the infectious diseases department at the Avicenne hospital in Bobigny (Seine-Saint-Denis).
Be careful, however, because this could also be explained by the departures during the Easter weekend.
"It's true, but we have seen a better start since the end of last week, so before this new weekend, with a little less pressure in the emergency room," replied the doctor.
"The last big wave that we will have to experience"
It will also be necessary for the flow of admissions to the hospital to become less than that of discharges.
And this is far from the case for the moment, since the number of hospital beds occupied by Covid patients in Île-de-France continues to climb.
1,660 patients were under critical care (resuscitation, critical care or continuous monitoring) on April 6, half more than the peak of the second wave.
The curve should continue to climb "for at least a week", anticipates the Ministry of Health.
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The peak at the hospital will "not be reached before mid-April," confirms Mircea T. Sofonea, according to whom the worst mistake would be "to take measures to meet an expectation or a certain pressure, but without settling down. behind a strategy with a timetable, deadlines, and thresholds ”.
At the moment, schools remain closed for three weeks and other restrictions remain in place for at least a month.
In an optimistic tone, Olivier Bouchaud concludes: “It is quite likely that with vaccination and the more favorable summer period, this third wave will be the last big one we will have to live.
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