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Coronavirus: what was the mortality of those over 60 with a single dose of the vaccine so far

2021-04-08T10:01:36.515Z


According to Conicet scientists, the performance of Sputnik V and AstraZeneca is positive. It remains to know how immunity is maintained after two months.


Irene Hartmann

04/08/2021 6:00 AM

  • Clarín.com

  • Society

Updated 04/08/2021 6:00 AM

In the chat they share to discuss figures for the pandemic, a group of Conicet scientists took some official data and made accounts.

The conclusion: that a single dose of coronavirus vaccines in those over 60 years of age is capable of offering

96.93%

protection against death 

, which implies a reduction in the

 mortality rate of up to 20 times.

In other words: in the population and period observed there were

15

deaths.

Without any doses it could have been

302

.

The "mentors" of the calculation were two researchers from Conicet. 

Sol Minoldo

, sociologist and who implemented the University System of Prevention and Tracking of Contacts of the National University of Córdoba, and the chemist Roberto Etchenique.

Additionally, Guillermo Durán, director of the Institute of Calculations of the Faculty of Exact Sciences of the UBA, and one of the advisers of the scientific committee of the Buenos Aires governor, Axel Kicillof, gave support.

They started from the public data released by the Ministry of Health of the Nation on the number of infections and deaths from Covid registered for 66 days among people who had received only one dose against the coronavirus, specifically from the

Sputnik V and AstraZeneca

brands

, since no statistics are yet available on the effects of the Sinopharm vaccine.

A 77-year-old woman receives the first dose of one of the Covid vaccines at a school stall in Hurlingham.

Photo Xinhua / Martín Zabala

“The conclusion is that for those over 60 years of age,

fatality was reduced 8.2 times

compared to the average.

And

mortality dropped 20 times

”, explained Sol Minoldo, in dialogue with

Clarín

.

Said in percentages, the chances of dying for those under 60 years of age were reduced by

100%

 (always within the observation cut-off).

For those over 60, the

protection against death by Covid was 96.93%

.

What is the difference between "fatality" and "mortality"?

By "mortality" we understand the deaths that a certain pathogen produces in the population.

The "lethality", on the other hand, is the deceased out of the total number of infected by this "bug".

The

fatality 

could be constant due to lack of medicines or vaccines, for example.

Taking the specific data of the Covid, out of every 100 infected, about 1.5 people die (average), although in the segments of adults over 70 the figure rises to about 

15 deaths for every 100 infected

.

"

Mortality

is made from two data: the incidence of infections and fatality. If one, in addition to vaccinating those who have a high

mortality

rate (older adults and those with risk factors), gives a dose to people with the highest incidence of contagion (doctors or security personnel, who perhaps are young and do not have a lot of fatality but affect infections),

the strategy ends up being relevant to the level of mortality,

"explained Minoldo.

Precisely, the experts deduced, that happened: in the observed period (which, it should be clarified, omits possible circumstances, such as someone dying because they contracted Covid before receiving the vaccine), the distribution of a dose generated in the vaccinated population over 60 years a

notable decrease in the risk of contagion.

Thus, in addition to reducing the lethality derived from severe disease (12 times), mortality fell (32.2 times), since vaccination, as mentioned, reduces both infections (incidence) and lethality in Yes.

The data

The analysis started from an observation in the segment of 2,824,344 vaccinated people (as reported by the Ministry of Health), although it focused on 0.2%, some 6,000 people who were infected despite having received the first dose against the Covid.

Among those infected, there were

15 deaths

, all in those over 60 years, whose date of infection (that is, if it was the next day, the day before or two weeks after receiving the dose) is unknown.

It is only known that they were infected sometime between day 1 and 66 from the dose in question.

"If those two million or so people had not received any vaccine, the calculations indicate that

45 people under 60

and 302 over 60

would have died

. In the second case, it must be clarified that the period observed is 6 weeks, since mid-February, due to the particular times of the start of the vaccination campaign, "explained Minoldo.


Vaccination for people over 80 years old in La Rural.

Photo Luciano Thieberger.

Although these are data that arouse optimism, the expert was cautious and explained that "you have to put cold cloths", since they are only seeing a

photo of the issue

.

"The percentages are very good, but we are looking at the deaths registered in the last month and a half nothing more. Unlike what happens when we look at an experimental group, this is not a group fully vaccinated at the beginning of the observed period. recently vaccinated people and the figures could be modified a bit, "he said.

Although

Sinopharm's performance data is

still

lacking

, the expert highlighted that, “in addition to having a protection that reduces the probability of infection, there is a giant reduction in lethality.

It is great news: it implies that if these trends are sustained over time, vaccinating all at-risk people with one dose would make the pandemic stop being a serious health problem ”.

Although

Guillermo Durán

 remarked that "the interesting thing about these data is that they demonstrate the success of COFESA in the decision to prioritize the immunization of twice the number of people at risk with one dose, rather than half with the complete vaccine", a question does not The answer is whether this promising performance of the immunity generated with dose 1

could decline

(and, consequently, worsen the contagion and lethality rates) once the vaccinated person "steps" on the date when they should receive the second dose.

The Minister of Health, Carla Vizzotti, in Ezeiza, when the first doses of Sinopharm against Covid-19 arrived.

Photo Rafael Mario Quinteros

Because although AstraZeneca offers, at two weeks after the first injection, a protection of 76%, and a better performance was also shown if the two doses are deferred 12 weeks, the case of Sputnik is different: the efficacy reaches the 87% after 14 days after receiving dose 1, and rises to 91% after receiving the second, indicated at 21 days, although the term could be extended to two months, according to the developers.

Days ago

Clarín

asked local Sputnik representatives if they endorsed the use that the Government is giving the vaccine, that is, applying the two doses (which also have different components) three months apart.

They explained that for now it is not possible for them to give an answer.


For now, Minoldo recalled that “it cannot be known yet whether the effectiveness could decline, since there is no data available on what happens after three months.

There are still no vaccinated people in Argentina who have already had that period since inoculation and have not received the second dose. "

Anyway, he concluded, "we must remember that, at least for now, the strategy would be not to delay the second dose beyond that period."

Look also

Following a decision by the United States, AstraZeneca vaccines would begin to arrive in Argentina

WHO: link between AstraZeneca vaccine and some very rare cases of thrombosis possible, but not confirmed

Source: clarin

All life articles on 2021-04-08

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