Pablo Sigal
04/09/2021 6:01 AM
Clarín.com
Society
Updated 04/09/2021 6:01 AM
Today marks
402 days of pandemic in Argentina
and history repeats itself.
As on that March 20, 2020, at dawn on Friday, April 9, a series of restrictions began to be implemented with which the Government will try to reduce the cases of
coronavirus.
As experience indicates, the problem is not so much when the "quarantine" begins,
but when it ends
.
Especially if the measures are not successful.
The danger is that the country, as in other facets, with the Covid is also a dog that bites its tail.
Here, a review of the
ten variables
that led the Argentine ship, in the midst of the storm of the pandemic, to a new desert island.
1- Many cases
Swabs made during the last hours in La Rural.
Photo: Juano Tesone
The number of cases registered in recent days is the main signal that has set off the alarms.
Argentina is beginning to go through its
third peak.
The second occurred in mid-January, although it was less intense than the other two.
The October peak reached an average of
14,823 infections
in seven days, the January
peak
reached
11,712
(it was considered more a regrowth than a second wave) and the current one stands at
14,464
for now
, but rising.
Added to this is a total number of unpublished active cases: 227,646 as of this Thursday.
At the October peak, that number had reached 174,368.
This is because the new diagnosed cases of Covid
accumulate so quickly
that they do not give time for the registrations of the recovered ones to do their work of discount.
2- Lethality on hold
v 1.5
Deaths from coronavirus
in Argentina
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Ministry of Health |
Johns Hopkins
Infographic:
Clarín
More than by the curve that deaths draw in the present, it is feared by the one that they may delineate in the near future.
The question is
what will be the impact of lethality in this second wave of Covid
.
An "encouraging" fact is that the infections are occurring in a population younger than that of the first wave.
That difference in the age target should inevitably have an impact on the number of deaths.
In 2020,
83 percent
of fatal coronavirus cases occurred in people over the age of 60.
Now, approximately a third of that population of older adults has received one of the three vaccines against the coronavirus available in Argentina.
It is not a guarantee of immunity
, but is expected to at least cushion the impact.
3- Variants of Covid
Passengers who arrived from abroad imported the Covid variants.
Photo: Rolando Andrade
The problem of variants is directly linked to the previous point and it is the variable that puts the
greatest uncertainty
in the second wave of coronavirus.
The British variant, according to the information available so far, is up to 70 percent more contagious and
is circulating communally
in the country.
The UK variant was also found to be more virulent, meaning that those infected with it are at
higher risk of needing hospitalization.
In the same way,
the Manaus variant has community circulation in Argentina and experts believe that its effects could be devastating, as they have already been in Brazil.
All of which means that the fact that the population that is being infected today is younger
does not guarantee
that the health system, in any case, cannot be stressed and even collapsed, precisely because of the unpredictable consequences that the recharged coronavirus brings.
4- Intensive therapy beds
Medical personnel carry out controls of patients with Covid-19 in a Buenos Aires ICU.
Photo: EFE
Until now, with exceptions in some municipalities, intensive care beds
are not at the limit
.
But it happens as with deaths: the second wave is just beginning and it is not yet known how far it will reach,
at what level the peak will reach.
If you look at the number of intensive care beds occupied until the latest available data,
3,742
this Thursday, the country is far from still reaching the levels of demand that it manifested during the first wave of Covid, when it reached a peak of
5,037.
However, another data complicates the plot: this year there are more intensive care beds occupied by other pathologies that are not Covid.
As of today, a system stress is being reported, but above all
in the general hospitalization area
and, in particular, in the private system.
There is little availability to receive new patients.
5- Lack of tests
Rows to perform tests at the La Trinidad de Ramos Mejia Clinic.
Photo: Juano Tesone
Argentina is
ranked 13th in the world
in number of coronavirus cases.
On that list,
only two countries
tested less per million inhabitants than ours: Brazil and India.
In South America, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Uruguay tested more.
The Government has decided to
decentralize
in this second wave the acquisition of tests in the provinces, which contributes a new quota of instability to this policy that in the world is considered
key to control the pandemic
.
In other words, keeping people locked up is not enough if at the same time there is not an aggressive campaign of
detection and isolation
.
The increase in tests in recent days, the consequence of which was an unprecedented number of cases, had more to do with a
demand from citizens
who attend hospitals and clinics than with a logic of tracking and identification, so that those infected
do not continue circulating
and spreading.
6- Slow vaccination
A nurse holds up a coronavirus vaccine.
Photo: EFE
Here, the shortage of vaccines in the world converge, which affects the local supply, with the slowness to apply the vaccines
that are already available.
Although President Alberto Fernández has said that Argentina could apply up to 150 thousand doses per day if the country had them, that does not translate into facts
when the stock exists.
According to the Public Vaccination Monitor, the Government has already distributed almost
6,609,996 vaccines
, but
4,879,656
have been applied
.
One of the arguments for setting the new restrictions from this Friday on social life has been to "stop to vaccinate."
That is, to
buy time.
However, that time could be optimized, as some provinces do: La Pampa and San Luis were practically up to date with their supplies.
The national average does not indicate the same when it is observed that only
72 percent
of the doses received in the districts were applied.
7- Uneven treatments
Plasma bags at the La Plata Hemotherapy Institute.
Photo: Reuters
So far no
hegemonic treatment
against the coronavirus
has emerged
.
Some that were believed to be viable were discarded in the last year and others remain, still in the testing phase and emergency authorization.
Few of these trials have been successful.
One of these treatments is
convalescent plasma
, which with the second wave has started to become scarce again due to the lack of donors.
In this sense, there has not been a forceful action by the State, through public campaigns, to
get volunteers.
Plasma is one of the "remedies" that can prevent a patient from going to intensive therapy.
The other treatment added this year is hyperimmune equine serum, which has also shown good results, but its use is still
uneven and limited
in the provinces, despite having been approved by the ANMAT in December.
8- More "infected" provinces
Movement of people in Mendoza, one of the provinces most affected by the second wave.
Photo: Los Andes
Unlike what happened in the first wave, this time the Covid
attacks
much of the country
in a more homogeneous way
.
Córdoba, Santa Fe and Mendoza have very high levels of contagion, although the highest concentration occurs
in the AMBA.
Although the spirit of the new “quarantines” that will be available from now on would be more
surgical and focused
, the current reality of the pandemic indicates that the virus is spreading throughout the main urban centers of the country.
One of the reasons for this Covid 2021 map is because
the curve never went down enough
and, therefore, the epidemiological process of 2020 could not be repeated, when the cases began in the Federal Capital and the Suburbs, to later spread throughout the rest of the Argentine territory.
9- Low social responsibility
There are few public campaigns on the correct use of the chinstrap and other key sanitary measures.
Photo: EFE
Contradictory
messages
from the State and a "natural" tendency of society to pull the rope as much as possible or
allowed
was another of the factors that led to the current situation, which has led to new restrictions for everyone.
In this regard, there is also no active and permanent campaign to raise awareness in the population, with the aim of sustaining care over time: correct use of the chinstrap, limited number of people who can enter a commercial premises, greater control of transport, among other key measures.
This relaxation has resulted in even more serious situations, as were all kinds of
popular gatherings
and
mass parties
, some clandestine and others authorized.
10- Restrictions on restrictions
Alberto Fernández, when he showed contagions on maps to renew the quarantine, in August 2020.
The lack of control over the existing protocols has caused the Government to put
more restrictions
, which if not controlled again will make the same authorities try to go for greater restrictions, in a growing spiral with an
uncertain ending.
This new stage of social and commercial limitations also drags the burden of 2020, when the country went through one of the
longest
quarantines
in
the world, without the Government deciding to put
a reasonable limit on it
when necessary.
That sin “of youth” is what causes that in this second phase of the pandemic the social consensus on the restrictions can
become weaker
and, therefore, transform a measure of high social and economic impact into health inefficient.
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