Not only the environmental costs, the effects of climate change will weigh on the economy of European islands and archipelagos as much as a pandemic or a major economic crisis.
This is what a maxi European study on the climate suggests, which in particular for Italy shows that in 2100 Sardinia could pay the effects of climate change between 4% and 8% of GDP, and Sicily between 2% % and 4%.
Not far from the numbers seen in 2008 or last year.
The project, funded by Horizon, is called Soclimpact and lasted 40 months involving 24 research partners from eight European countries.
At the center of the work are the French Antilles, Azores, Balearics, Canaries, Corsica, Crete, Cyprus, Fehmarn, Madeira, Malta, Sardinia and Sicily.
Scientists focused on territorial vulnerabilities, possible economic impacts in the 'blue economy' sectors (aquaculture, energy, maritime transport and tourism) and socio-economic effects (in terms of GDP, investments, employment).
Among the subjects involved is the University of Bologna, with the Center for Advanced Studies on Tourism (Cast), active on the Rimini Campus.
According to Paolo Figini, professor of the Department of Economic Sciences of the Unibo, in the worst scenario, tourism spending is expected in 2100 much lower than that which would occur in the same year under normal conditions: "Overall, it can be estimated that the overall tourism expenditure at the end of the century is 59% lower in Sardinia, while in Sicily we are at least 38% ".
Among the individual factors, it emerges that the fire risk is moderate but leads "to a decrease in tourist spending in the case of Sardinia around 20% and in the case of Sicily around 13%".
The loss of marine biodiversity (again according to the worst scenario) could reach 14% in Sardinia and 28% in Sicily.
Rising sea level and increasing extreme events could lead to a 58% drop in the current surface area for Sardinian beaches and 61% for Sicilian ones: for this factor alone, the costs on tourist spending would be 26% in Sardinia and 'only' 17% in Sicily, which can also count on cultural tourism.
The lengthening of the summer season due to the rise in temperatures, on the other hand, would have a positive effect on tourism, more marked for Sardinia (+ 16%) than for Sicily (+ 2%).
Ultimately, however, the balance of socio-economic effects is negative: the two macroeconomic models used, explains Figini, give "for Sardinia a loss of GDP by 2100 ranging between 4 and 8%, while in Sicily it is between 2 and 4% "compared to an 'ideal' situation.
And this is because hotels, tourism and restaurants would see a 'cut' in the added value "of around 20% in Sardinia and 9% in Sicily".
In short, Figini points out, the effect of climate change on the economy of the islands "is similar to that of a major economic crisis or a pandemic".
According to Figini, it is important to consider the effects of climate change on individual territories: "Some territories may also benefit from it. But as regards our area, the European one, it is a risk that will generate economic as well as environmental costs".
