It seems far away, the time when we could read in the health bulletins of the French public health agency, sentences like "viral circulation is in sharp decline".
That was five months ago, in November.
An eternity.
This time, the virus does not seem in a hurry to withdraw its third wave, which still left nearly three hundred dead on Wednesday.
Moreover, the semantics are not the same, whether it is about the government or the experts.
Olivier Véran speaks of a "decrease" that began in France at the end of last week.
Jean Castex, during his big speech this Thursday evening, of "decline".
“The situation is improving.
This decline concerns 80% of the departments ”, welcomed the Prime Minister, noting that the“ peak of the third wave seems behind us ”.
But epidemiologists prefer the more cautious terms of "high plateau" or "stagnation".
Read alsoBack to class, deconfinement, quarantine, vaccines: what to remember from Jean Castex's announcements
“Let's say that we seem to be moving towards a slow decline in the epidemic.
The downward slope is gentle, ”summarizes Pascal Crépey, researcher at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health (EHSP).
Granted, there are undeniably fewer new daily cases of Covid.
Less than 32,000 on average, against nearly 40,000 at the end of March.
"But beware, there is a bias, because at the same time, the number of tests carried out has fallen, in particular due to the closure of schools", warns epidemiologist Philippe Amouyel.
"Very different" downturn dynamics
We must therefore be interested in what his colleague Pascal Crépey calls "the real signal": hospital indicators. “For several days, the number of admissions to the hospital has stopped increasing, and so much the better. It is not a fall but a plateau ”, decrypts this one. The curve specialist is convinced that the recession will be "very different" from the first two confinements. Softer, more fragile, with less room for maneuver.
We could have imagined the opposite because between autumn and spring, 14 million people were vaccinated and the good weather made several breakthroughs. Yes, but another guest also joined in the dance. The British mutant, more transmissible than the historical strain of the virus. “He radically changed things. In front of him, in equal measures, we control the epidemic more slowly, ”notes the epidemiologist. This variant even explains "that the drop is half as fast as during the confinement of the month of November," Jean Castex said on Thursday.
More societal, another factor comes into play.
"The capacity of the population to be able to comply with the measures," estimates Pascal Crépey.
After a year of health crisis, it necessarily becomes more complicated not to sprain.
This is part of the equation to consider.
"
"It is not totally crazy to release the pressure a bit"
In the intensive care units too, we see that the gauge is struggling to go down.
“We are passing the peak.
It doesn't go up anymore, but it's still difficult.
This is not illogical, there is always a gap between the first drops in contamination and their repercussions on the beds ”, summarizes Laurent Gergelé, resuscitator at the Private Hospital of the Loire (HPL), in Saint-Etienne. (Loire).
This "reflux", Jean Castex hopes "in a few days.
"
What is more, the profile of patients is different from those the doctor welcomed this fall. “They are younger, and since they tolerate the virus better initially, they are already in serious condition when they arrive here. We use the Optiflow system much less
(Editor's note: small pipes connected to the nostrils to deliver oxygen, less invasive)
and intubate much more than in November. Patients therefore stay longer, ”explains the doctor.
“We are stable today. It is not completely crazy to relax the pressure on the French a little, notes Christian Rabaud, the professor of infectious diseases in Nancy (Meurthe-et-Moselle). But in two to three weeks, it is not said that the number of hospitalizations will not increase again. It is all very tenuous. "This is what epidemiologist Philippe Amouyel calls" the crest line ". A line on which the government, which has confirmed that it wants to maintain its deconfinement schedule, will have to move forward, without falling.