In the early hours of Sunday to Monday in Europe (where there are two venues, in London and Paris, for the awards), five in the afternoon in Los Angeles (California), and the 93rd Oscar awards ceremony begins, here there is a review of the 23 nominations and their possible winners according to the previous awards season.
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The 36 Oscar movies you can watch from home
'Nomadland' sweeps the Spirit, the 'indie' film awards
BEST FILM.
Nomadland
by Chloé Zhao. There doesn't seem to be much discussion. It has won the Golden Globe for best drama, the Bafta and the Syndicate award (in fact, they are not unions) of Producers, it is the fashion film. Last year they reached this final equaled
1917
and
Parasites.
Her heart, and a certain euphoric feeling surrounding her, pointed to the Bong Joon-ho film. The brain said that it had never won a foreign film in the main category. Today we already know that the weight in the results of non-US voters at the Oscars is significant. That there are no longer limits. And that further underlines the predilection for
Nomadland.
But, there is always a but, it was not even a candidate for best cast in the Actors Guild awards, in proportion to the profession that contributes the most members to the film academy. In that gala he won
The Chicago 7 trial,
by Aaron Sorkin, which would be the big cover. And both comply with the rule of montage: whoever wins the jackpot has usually been nominated in that technical category as well. Last year it was not
1917
and ... By the way, Zhao and McDormand are producers of
Nomadland
, and the second will become if the film wins the first actress to get the statuette as a producer. Another sign against
The Chicago 7 Trial:
Since 1935, not a single movie has won just the main Oscar. Y
The Chicago 7 trial
doesn't look like any more.
BEST DIRECTION.
Chloé Zhao, by
Nomadland.
Undoubtedly.
It has taken it all: Bafta, Golden Globes, Directors Guild ... even the Critics' Choice.
Zhao is unrivaled, and will become the second filmmaker, after Kathryn Bigelow, to win this accolade.
Chloé Zhao, at the Bafta.
BEST LEADING ACTOR.
Chadwick Boseman, for
The Mother of the Blues.
It will be the posthumous Oscar of the night, and will thus pay tribute to the one who seemed called to make great performances, until cancer ended his life on August 28. He has won the Golden Globe and the Actors Guild award (this is the one that makes the difference), while his great rival, Anthony Hopkins - the best work of the quintet - has won the Bafta for
The father.
But Hopkins already has the Oscar, for
The Silence of the Lambs,
and this award is going to be a nod to the new generations.
BEST LEADING ACTRESS.
Here's the battle of the season: all against Frances McDormand, who incidentally has been nominated at least once in the past five decades. Impressive. Against her is that she has already won it twice
(Fargo
and
Three advertisements in the outskirts)
and distributed it from the previous ceremonies. The Golden Globe was won by Andra Day for
the United States against Billie Holiday;
the Critics' Choice went to Carey Mulligan for
A Promising Young Woman,
and the Actors Guild Award went to Viola Davis for
The Mother of the Blues.
Davis already won the Oscar for
Fences,
but she is an actress with enormous prestige among her co-workers. McDormand won the Bafta, and if she - who certainly deserves it - takes this statuette there will be no doubt:
Nomadland
sweeps the night. However, there is still another consideration, the ethnic one. If Davis wins (the Andra Day thing would be a surprise at the height of Marisa Tomei for
My cousin Vinny), it
is likely, seeing the rest of the favorites in action, that for the first time in history there will not be a single Caucasian winner in the quartet of successful performers. And in inclusive times, that image scores a lot. If there is one hope for Mulligan, it is that on Thursday he won at the Spirit (that doesn't mean much either), the
indie
film awards.
, and that, according to the website Compare.bet, the English leads online bets with 42.2%.
Viola Davis, in 'The mother of the blues'.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR.
There is no debate here.
It will be for Londoner Daniel Kaluuya, for
Judas and the black messiah.
He has won the poker of the season (Golden Globe, Bafta, Critics' Choice and the Screen Actors Guild), and even that his partner LaKeith Stanfield is also a candidate will subtract votes.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS.
For Korean veteran Youn Yuh-jung by
Minari.
The Golden Globe was won by Jodie Foster, who is not even a candidate here, while the Asian rock grandmother won the Actors Guild and Bafta awards.
Another clear statuette.
BEST ORIGINAL SCRIPT.
A promising young woman,
by Emerald Fennell. In this category, riskier scripts are usually chosen,
indie
film bets
, and
A promising young woman
is. Three big signs in favor: having won the award from the Writers 'Guild, the Critics' Chioce and the Bafta.
BEST ADAPTED SCRIPT.
If at the beginning of the season it seemed clearly for Chloé Zhao, who took this category in the Critics' Choice, now the wind is blowing in favor of
The Father,
in whose writing the playwright Florian Zeller has had the collaboration of Christopher Hampton.
This Oscar will be the one that goes to Paris, since from that venue of the gala the candidates of
The Father will live
the ceremony.
Although, pay attention, the Writers' Union awarded
Borat 2
in this category
.
Olivia Colman and Anthony Hopkins, in 'The father'.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM.
Another Round,
by Thomas Vinterberg. He has won everything: European film awards, Bafta ... and if he has lost it has been against
Minari,
in a repeated dispute when the award is settled between films in a foreign language. This is not the case here. His rivals: the Tunisian film
The man who sold his skin
is a goal to the Academy;
Collective
is a documentary favorite (and that's the category it should win), and Hong Kong's
Better Days
is "good but ...". Is only up to
Quo vadis, Aida?
of the Bosnian Jasmila Žbanić, who could snatch the recognition.
On Thursday he won in this category at the Spirit Awards.
However, when a film in this category scores another important nomination (Vinterberg is also competing for directing) it usually wins here.
BEST ANIMATION FEATURE.
Soul,
by Pete Docter and Kemp Powers.
Due to the inertia of the voters, who as soon as a Pixar film competes, they choose it.
Golden Globes, Bafta and Annie (the animators' awards) confirm their advantage.
But
Wolfwalkers
would deserve it.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE.
Here's another fierce battle. Netflix promotes
What the octopus taught me
(the worst of the quintet, although it has won the Bafta and the Producers 'Union) and
Crip Camp, an extraordinary camp,
which has won the Spirit, the audience award at Sundance and the Critics' Choice. In addition, it counts the Obamas in production.
Time
is beautiful and gives a new vision on prison problems and racism in the US And the Romanian
Collective
is the most canonical of the quintet, in addition to defending a double nomination. The triumph of
The Mole Agent,
by the Chilean Maite Alberdi,
seems almost impossible
. One would tend to select
Collective,
but the weight of the Obamas is unquestionable.
So
Crip Camp,
by James Lebrecht and Nicole Newnham.
Now the octopus ...
Image of 'What the octopus taught me'.
BEST PHOTOGRAPH.
All previous awards have gone to Joshua James Richards,
Nomadland's cinematographer
and Zhao's partner.
All, except the one awarded by the American Society of Cinematographers, which was taken by Erik Messerschmidt, who makes his debut as responsible for the image in a feature film thanks to
Mank.
Out of voter inertia, and because of their fascinating depiction of dusty landscapes with
sweeping
sunsets, we chose Richards and
Nomadland.
BEST SOUNDTRACK.
Soul,
by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batist. Interestingly, Reznor and Ross - leader and member, respectively, of Nine Inch Nails - are also candidates for
Mank's
soundtrack
,
because they are David Fincher's regular collaborators: with him for
The Social Network they have
already won the Oscar. But
Soul
is taking it all.
BEST SONG.
Speak Now,
from
One Night in Miami.
He won the Critics' Choice, and this year there are no flash stars in this category.
She is played by Leslie Odom jr, who in the Regina King drama plays Sam Cooke, and who is also a candidate for a supporting actor.
It could only have a rival in
Io Sì (Seen),
from
Life Ahead,
by Diane Warren, composer and candidate for the twelfth time (she has never won it) and Laura Pausini.
They took the Golden Globe.
Aldis Hodge and Leslie Odom jr, in the trailer for 'One Night in Miami'.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN.
Mank
,
with production design by Donald Graham Burt and sets by Jan Pascale.
Two reasons: the main one is that it is a great job, and the second is that the Art Directors Union and the Set Decorators Society of America awarded them in the period section.
It is true that those awards recognized
Tenet
in a fantastic film, but it does not seem like a rival.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN.
Ann Roth, for
The Mother of the Blues.
He has won the Bafta and the Costume Designers Guild Award for Period Film.
Roth, 90, was already doing this work in the 1960s, and has the Oscar for
The English Patient.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRDRESSING.
Here the name of a Spaniard will sound, because it will be taken by the team from
La madre del blues:
Matiki Anoff, Larry M. Cherry, Sergio Lopez-Rivera and Mia Neal. López-Rivera is Viola Davis' personal makeup artist, and has even recreated beads of sweat on her face. Previously they have already won the Bafta and in the Hollywood Union of makeup artists and hairdressers.
BEST ASSEMBLY.
It would be lovely if Chloé Zhao took it for
Nomadland,
but the Bafta went to Mikkel EG Nielsen for
Sound of Metal.
Although in the Eddies, delivered by the Society of Film Editors of the United States, Alan Baumgarten won for
The Chicago 7 trial,
with a more vigorous montage. Tossing it up and down, and knowing that last year in the same situation the voters looked at the Bafta (for
Le Mans '66),
we chose
Sound of Metal.
BETTER VISUAL EFFECTS.
If
Tenet
doesn't win in this category, what's left?
They took the Bafta, although in the Visual Effects Syndicate the
Midnight Sky
team won
.
As in the previous one, let's prioritize the Bafta track.
Trailer for 'Tenet'.
BETTER SOUND.
The double bid for sound has finally been reunified, leaving the Oscar competition statuettes at 23. How can a movie that has the word sound in the title not win it? It will be for
Sound of Metal,
who have just received the Bafta and the awards from the Association of Motion Picture Sound and the Cinema Audio Society. Only one sign against: in the Golden Reel, awarded by the Motion Picture Sound Editors, they lost in their three categories of cinema. Although, how many sound editors vote at the Oscars?
BEST FICTION SHORT.
We all like Oscar Isaac, the protagonist of the wonderful
Mail Room.
But in the United States, the atmosphere is biased in favor of
Two Complete Strangers,
by Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe, a version of
Trapped in Time
inspired by the murder of George Floyd: whatever the black protagonist does, he is always killed by the white cop. And it's on Netflix.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT.
Never oppose a short focused on Nazism.
And although
A Love Song for Latasha
talks about an African-American teenager killed in recent riots in Los Angeles,
Colette,
by Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard, tells of an old woman's trip to the concentration camp where her brother, a member of the resistance, died. French.
Oscar for
Colette.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT.
Anyone who has seen
If Something Happens to Me, I Love You,
a wonder by Will McCormack and Michael Govier about the grief of parents whose daughter was killed in a shooting at their school, understands that the statuette is theirs.
It is also on Netflix.
Image of 'If something happened to me, I love you'.