Pablo Sigal
04/26/2021 6:01 AM
Clarín.com
Society
Updated 04/26/2021 6:01 AM
115 days have
passed
since the immunization campaign began in the country and the calendar, facing next winter, does not give truce.
The shortage of doses and the impossibility of
obtaining a larger quantity
quickly contrasts with a certain official obsession: having an “Argentine vaccine”.
The results of that supposed life drive have immediately reversed their sign, with a large part of the population out in the open in the face of the
coronavirus.
The first bet was for the
AstraZeneca vaccine "made in Garin"
, whose active ingredient is manufactured minutes from General Paz and is packaged in Mexico.
That production, promised eight months ago as a balm, is still expected to turn around with its blessings.
Now, last week, the Government refloated its enthusiasm for another national feat: the
"Sputnik VIDA"
, which would be packaged from June in the plant that the Richmond laboratory has in Malvinas Argentinas, although the promise of integral production is for within
14 months.
To these initiatives of the pharmaceutical industry are added
scientific developments that are still germinating
.
One is from the University of San Martín and Conicet (same plant as the popular Atom Protect chinstrap), whose vaccine is in the preclinical phase and was named “Arvac Cecilia Grierson”.
This vaccine, publicly presented as a
sovereign strategic plan to
face the challenge of the pandemic, has a curiosity: its name is the same as that of another vaccine - against equine viral arteritis - that Pfizer brought to Argentina a decade ago.
To the new one they added a tribute to the first doctor in the country.
It is projected for 2022.
The president of Richmond, Marcelo Figueiras, with Minister Vizzotti and the advisor Cecilia Nicolini.
Photo: Télam
There are more net local investigations in progress in La Plata and the Litoral, plus a fourth in Córdoba with French and Brazilian collaboration:
potentially valuable work
that could give the country the chance to have its own patent.
The global vaccine shortage is likely to be no longer a problem by then.
While all this is happening, there are
nine vaccines
that have already been approved in the world,
four
of them in Argentina.
The coldest time of the year is approaching and uncertainty grows about what percentage of the vulnerable population will be immunized against Covid-19 before June 21.
This Sunday the Sinopharm vaccines began to arrive again, but they will not serve to expand the base of vaccinated because they will be used for
second doses
, since indeed no one knows with certainty if half a scheme is enough.
The government's counter-march, with respect to what the Federal Health Council had decided at the end of March, becomes
another stumbling block
for the objective of vaccinating more people in less time.
As announced, with the Sputnik V and AstraZeneca that arrive, the plan to
defer
the second dose for
three months will continue
.
President Fernández during his February visit to the Liomont laboratory in Mexico, which packages the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Photo: EFE
What remains, with the stock of the Chinese vaccine already compromised, is to wait for the batches of the Russian to arrive
more frequently
, as long as the growing flirtation of Europe with the Gamaleya Institute does not end up "intercepting" that production along the way.
Finally, it is key that AstraZeneca begins shipping the
22.4 million doses contracted
and largely paid for by Argentina.
There is no precise delivery date yet.
President Alberto Fernández said on Saturday: "We are waiting for AstraZeneca to start fulfilling its commitments in Latin America."
And he remarked that he speaks personally "with
all the laboratories and presidents of the world
to try to get more vaccines."
Time trial campaign
There are 55 days left for winter.
Argentina has vaccinated in the last week at an average rate of
83,996 doses every 24 hours
.
It is an improvement over previous months: if the average is taken from February, the daily injections applied drop to 60 thousand.
In the country, there is still to be vaccinated
8.3 million people at risk
, made up of 5.2 million people under 60 years of age with comorbidities (only 312 thousand have already received some dose) and 3.1 million people over 60 years of age (they were 4.3 million immunized).
At the current rate of vaccination, all of those people would finish being immunized on August 5.
This is a month and a half after winter started.
In order to reach that station with the entire population at risk vaccinated, in principle
71,000 more injections would have to be given per day
.
Older adults receive the Covid vaccine in Tecnopolis.
Photo: EFE
That amount implies a volume
84 percent higher
than the current one, in order to achieve the necessary mark of 155 thousand daily doses.
If the captive volume of Sinopharm is subtracted and the essential workers not yet inoculated are added, the essential increase would approach
100 percent.
The pace of the campaign remains
uneven
.
Judging by the figures released by the Vaccination Monitor, it is difficult to sustain a high bar consistently.
Each week there are usually three days with many inoculations, two with a medium level and another two with a low level (usually on weekends).
For example, on Sunday, April 18,
only 19 thousand doses
were applied
, while the previous Monday, 168,690 had been injected.
The record was recorded on April 7, with
233,934 doses
.
The day with the lowest mark was February 14, with 52 throughout the country (slightly more than two per province).
If a high intensity could be sustained all week, surely it could reach June 21 with those little more than
8 million people
at risk remaining immunized.
What is needed, obviously, are more vaccines.
The National Vaccination Plan considers -in principle- only vulnerable groups, so the number of doses contracted to date
does not take into account 15 million adults
between 18 and 60 years old without underlying diseases.
The fate of these people could only be defined when the Government closes new contracts with laboratories.
Or the Argentine vaccine is a fact.
A postcard of the last days in Tel Aviv.
Israel is the country that comes closest to achieving herd immunity.
Photo: AFP
In this context of uncertainty, the long-awaited
"herd immunity" is also at stake
.
The site timetoherd.com offers an interactive tool to know how many days it would take each country to achieve it.
In the most optimistic scenario, in which that instance would arrive with 60 percent of the vaccinated population, Argentina would take
411 days
.
That is, June 2022.
When comparing the indicator between countries, in the region
only Chile and Uruguay
would achieve herd immunity before Argentina, with 61 and 70 days, respectively.
Brazil would take 508 days and Colombia, 545. In North America, it would take Canada 112 days and the United States, 59.
In Europe, Spain still has 151 days ahead;
Great Britain, 70;
France, 172;
Italy, 162;
Sweden, 135;
and Germany, 154. In Asia, Israel is the fastest country: it has 27 days to go;
Saudi Arabia should wait 207 days;
and China, 333. The
degree of correction that adjusts these predictions to reality will depend on
the
effectiveness of public management
in each nation.
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