The media magnifying glass lingers on the side effects of vaccines, in this case the rare and sometimes tragic cases of thrombosis, and the entire vaccination campaign against Covid-19 suffers.
Emmanuel Macron, himself, recognized the "difficulties to be convinced on the AstraZeneca" and the government would imagine calling on people to restore the image of the Swedish-British vaccine.
We compared the probability of dying from thrombosis after injection of the AstraZeneca vaccine with other more usual accidents or causes of death: homicide, drowning, domestic accident, breast cancer, stroke… And the most dangerous is not that that we believe.
AstraZeneca and Covid, a benefit-risk ratio already known
Doctors and the WHO (World Health Organization) insist that the benefit of the vaccine “largely” outweighs the risk of thrombosis.
The statistics prove them entirely right: according to our analyzes, the French have a risk in 421,909 of dying from thrombosis after receiving a dose of AstraZeneca vaccine.
The risk of contracting thrombosis after injection without dying from it is almost divided by four: 1 in 146,751. On the other hand, the French have a risk in 659 of dying from Covid-19 since March 2020. It increases sharply in the event of a positive test : there, the people concerned have on average one chance in 52 of dying from the coronavirus.
You have a one in twelve chance of having tested positive since March 2020. T. Higashiyama
"The fact that the Covid and vaccination are so much publicized gives a truncated vision of the phenomenon, estimates Professor Nathan Mewton, cardiologist at the Louis Pradel hospital in Bron, near Lyon.
The hepatitis B vaccine has ignited the powder.
There have been reported cases of multiple sclerosis, neurological disease and a possible causal link has been suspected.
This bad label was put on the vaccine and people developed mistrust.
Fear and ignorance have consolidated with a second phenomenon, the emergence of the Internet, where anyone can give their opinion, outbid and be read.
"
Read alsoHepatitis B vaccine cleared
To reassure his patients with heart failure who fear the vaccine, despite their reduced immune defenses, the cardiologist repeats the same message to them: "I prefer a thousand times that they have a little fever, a little sore muscles after the vaccine rather than play russian roulette.
The Covid is a barrel with five bullets for them.
"
This Thursday morning on RMC, Prof. Odile Launay, infectious disease specialist, recalled that there are more side effects with the yellow fever vaccine than with the Covid-19 vaccine.
"But the one against yellow fever is older, while the vaccines against Covid-19 are new, they were manufactured quickly," she sums up to explain the distrust of the French.
Yet, they are safe and incredibly effective.
"
AstraZeneca and other health problems
The cases of thrombosis with the AstraZeneca vaccine have sparked a debate around the contraceptive pill.
Because the link between this venous disease and the taking of certain pills has been officially demonstrated and does not prevent thousands of prescriptions.
According to Inserm, there is a risk in 2,500 of developing a thromboembolic disease while taking the pill, against only, let us remember, a risk in 146,751 of having a thrombosis after injection of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
French women have almost a one in a thousand chance of developing breast cancer.
T. Higashiyama
"There is more risk of thrombosis for the pill and it can be very serious", confirms Jean-Paul Hamon, general practitioner and honorary president of the Federation of doctors of France.
But in the case of the contraceptive, "there are risk factors, such as tobacco, these are assumed choices and it is not the same type of thrombosis", he summarizes.
Read alsoRisk of thrombosis: can we really compare the AstraZeneca vaccine and contraceptive pills?
“Everyone naturally presents a risk of thromboembolism,” recalls Professor Nathan Mewton.
At Louis Pradel Hospital, doctors encounter 5 to 10 cases per month of spontaneous thrombosis, phlebitis or pulmonary embolism.
For which they often find factors of comorbidities, but "it is not always the case".
Clot formation may be due to immobilization, inflammation or dehydration.
According to him, "we should look at the rate of thrombosis in the general population, which would highlight a rate similar to that of the vaccinated population."
The risks of thrombosis following vaccination remain particularly low compared to those of dying from a stroke (1 in 543 in 2019) or developing breast cancer (1 in 1,020 in 2019).
AstraZeneca and everyday life
Succumbing to thrombosis after receiving a dose of AstraZeneca vaccine is so marginal that finding even rarer events requires a little imagination.
Statistically, the French are thus more at risk of dying from thrombosis with AstraZeneca (1 in 421,909, as a reminder) than of dying from a shark attack in Reunion in one year (1 in 573,584) or than of find the five correct numbers and the lucky number in the Loto (1 chance in… 19 068 840 million of winning the jackpot).
You had a one in 77 636 chance of dying by homicide in France, in 2020. T. Higashiyama
Conversely, everyday accidents are much more dangerous: you have a 1 in 3121 chance of dying from a domestic accident (2012 data), 1 in 8752 chance that an accidental fall will be fatal to you, 1 in 19,154 of being killed in a car accident, according to road safety, or a 1 in 35,211 chance of drowning in a private swimming pool (in 2018, according to the Ministry of Sports).
During the government press conference on Thursday evening, Olivier Véran himself put forward a comparison with the risks of a plane crash.
"If you cross the Atlantic by plane, the risk [of having a thrombosis] is 50 times higher than if you are vaccinated with AstraZeneca," says the Minister of Health.
You are 50 times more likely to get a venous thrombosis crossing the Atlantic by plane than getting vaccinated with AstraZeneca.
Vaccines protect us from # COVID19.
Let us go beyond mistrust!
- Olivier Véran (@olivierveran) April 22, 2021
"When I take my car or my bike in the morning to go to work, there is a risk of accident, however I take it anyway and I accept this risk", also argues Professor Nathan Mewton. To Jean-Jacques Bourdin who told him that the risk of being struck down was greater than that of dying from the vaccine, Professor Odile Launay nonetheless provided a nuance: "You can't help lightning, while the vaccine it is a process. It can be understood. But you have to explain to people that the risk of the virus is much greater than the risk of the side effect of the vaccine. There is no comparison. And now that we know it, we must go for a consultation and be taken care of. Spending a normal summer can only be done if we use all the vaccines available to us. "