The calculation is based on the active cases in the City and the GBA, compared to the peak of the first wave.
How the new variants of the virus, the face-to-face classes and the immunized ones influence.
Pablo Sigal
05/03/2021 6:00 AM
Clarín.com
Society
Updated 05/03/2021 6:00 AM
Few would have said that in this second wave of
coronavirus
the first would be “missed”.
That was a moment of the pandemic without vaccines and with a greater number of confined population, product of the quarantine.
At the same time there were fewer infections.
The lethality remains to be seen.
Argentina has just surpassed the 3 million cases mark.
To know how much the risk of contracting the virus grew today compared to the peak of 2020, it is possible to compare both epidemiological scenarios to reach an estimated conclusion for the
metropolitan area
:
1-
In the peak of cases in October, there was a record of
174,368 active cases of Covid
in the country
. In this second wave, the figure exceeded 283 thousand last Thursday, the product of a cumulative process in which the speed of infections does not give enough time to "drain": people who contracted coronavirus and were not discharged. On Friday, for the first time since the start of the second wave, that number began to
decline
and this Sunday it stood at
264,810.
2-
Of the current total of accumulated cases,
12.1 percent
correspond to infections produced in the City of Buenos Aires, while
46.7 percent
belong to the Province.
It is seen that the percentages are not directly proportional to the amount of population in each district.
There is a higher incidence of Covid in Buenos Aires territory.
3-
In the City there are currently
32,042 active cases
of coronavirus, while among Buenos Aires that sum reaches
126,666
.
To get an idea of the proportions, the number that the Province should have to match the Buenos Aires incidence of Covid would be approximately
240 thousand cases.
v1.7 0421
The waves of Covid in Argentina
The behavior of the curve in the 14-month pandemic.
»Daily cases per million inhab.
(mean 7d)
Source:
Min. Of Health
Infographic:
Clarín
4-
When comparing these figures with those corresponding to the peak of the first wave of Covid in the AMBA, there is a strong contrast.
The exact moment of the peak in the City was on September 17 and in the Province, on October 3.
At the country level, October 28 was reached.
5-
The porteños represented
8.49 percent
of total cases in the country
at the time of their own peak in 2020
, while in Buenos Aires the local proportion reached
50 percent
of the total.
A month later, when the Covid wave broke into the Interior, the percentages would drop significantly in the AMBA to grow in the provinces.
6-
At the time of those two peaks, there was a total of
10,225
active cases
in the case of the City, and
57,563
in the case of the Province.
Specifically in the GBA, the accumulated value was
46,050 cases.
7-
From the comparison between both scenarios (2020/2021) it emerges that in the first wave the possibility of encountering an active case of confirmed coronavirus in the City was
one in 293 people
.
Now that chance is much higher:
one for every 93 people.
A PCR on a suspected case of Covid.
Photo: Archive
8-
As for the province of Buenos Aires, the possibility went from
one in 295 people to one in 134
.
But if the count is narrowed to the GBA, the numbers indicate that there was
one chance in 208
during the first wave, and
one
in
118
in the second.
9-
This means that the probability of coming across someone who has Covid in the City has now grown
3.15 times
(last week a record of 4 times was reached) with respect to the first Buenos Aires peak, while in the Province that increase has been
1.76 times.
10-
That is, the chances of getting infected in the AMBA grew throughout the metropolitan area, but they diverge depending on the side of General Paz on which one walks.
A tentative conclusion is that the danger of coming into contact with the virus rose
almost twice
in the City than in the GBA.
The causes of the rise
1-
The new variants of Covid further increase the risk of contagion in the second wave: half of the cases that circulate in the AMBA now correspond to the variants of Manaus and the United Kingdom.
And on average there would be
50 percent
more transmissibility.
The proportion of these variants corresponds to samples analyzed in the last days of April, so the incidence on the total of active cases for now would not be entirely decisive.
2-
Unlike what happened in 2020, in the City there are now
face-to-face classes.
While some research confirms that this may be a contagion factor, others discredit it.
More data is needed to verify the incidence of open schools on the behavior of the curve.
v1.7 0421
Evolution of vaccination
»Vaccinated with 1st dose on 04/29
Source:
Ministry of Health
Infographic:
Clarín
3-
The number of
vaccinated
is still low in the country, especially with the two doses.
It is known that those vaccinated can catch it and spread it to others.
As the immunized rate increases (including convalescents) the circulatory power of the virus will
decline
hand in hand with herd immunity.
4-
The figures used are official and reflect only
registered coronavirus cases.
For experts, the number of Covid infections could be about four times higher than what the daily reports reflect.
5-
Strictly speaking, it is those unregistered cases that enhance the curve, since those detected and isolated would stop infecting.
In the City the risk of contagion grew more than in the GBA despite having had a
more active testing policy
.
That gives the guideline of the importance of this tool to combat the "ghost Covid".
$
Look also
Covid at home: 15 questions and answers for those who carry the infection with telephone monitoring
In-person classes are resumed in the City while the Court stretches the definition
