With the decline in internal combustion engines, more jobs are being lost in the German automotive industry than employees are retiring.
According to a study by the
Ifo Institute,
around 613,000 jobs in Germany
depend
on the construction of gasoline and diesel cars
.
This is reported by the German Press Agency (dpa, as of May 6).
With the ramp-up of electromobility in 2025, “between 29 percent and 36 percent of the affected employees will be available”, i.e. up to 221,000 employees
, according to an Ifo study published on Thursday on behalf of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA).
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Ifo Institute: Up to 221,000 jobs in the automotive industry on the brink
Even if around 86,000 of those potentially affected could retire by then, there remains a large gap:
Almost 100,000 people will soon have to find a new job, said study director Professor Oliver Falck according to dpa.
Retraining and further training *
could cushion the decline. But it remains to be seen whether battery cells and other products will be manufactured in Germany or elsewhere in the future. On the bottom line, “I would not dare to make a forecast,” said Falck, according to the dpa.
Ifo President Clemens Fuest said, as dpa also writes, it is about
people who specialize in a certain activity and have mostly earned well so far
.
"Individuals are not so easy to move from A to B," said VDA President Hildegard Müller, according to the dpa.
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Corporations could also bring outsourced production processes back into the company, said Falck, according to the report.
But that would also be at the expense of
suppliers who
develop and manufacture
parts for e-cars
.
Small businesses that specialize in a few products are often unable to replace parts that are no longer in demand with other products.
Medium-sized supplier industry: transition to e-mobility a challenge
"The
transition to electromobility is a major challenge
,
especially for the medium-sized supplier industry
," said Fuest, according to dpa. In 2019, the production value of all products directly dependent on the combustion engine was 149 billion euros. But e-cars no longer need engine blocks, cylinder heads, pistons, fuel pumps, spark plugs, mufflers and catalytic converters. Brake and clutch manufacturers are also affected because there is less wear and tear.
Research, development and the creation of new capacities for e-cars and digitization
have so far supported employment in the
car industry
, the dpa report said.
In the meantime, the
car manufacturers and suppliers have started to cut jobs
.
“A central question in the coming years” for the Ifo researchers is whether the dismantling of parallel structures for combustion and electric cars and lower added value, for example in the manufacture of batteries, will cost more jobs.
Between 215,000 and 289,000 jobs will be affected by the transformation by 2030 - “and this is already based on the previous climate protection laws,” the Ifo researchers said.
According to the new plans, Germany should already emit 65 percent less CO2 in 2030 and be climate-neutral in 2045.
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