Covid-19: it would take 35 million first-time vaccines to return to normal life, according to the scientific council

This is enough to calm enthusiasms.

The gradual reopening of social activities announced by the government "must be conducted in a prudent and controlled manner" if we want to avoid a "possible fourth wave" of the Covid-19 epidemic, warns the Scientific Council on Friday.

The body which advises the executive in the management of the health crisis recommends in particular to wait for "a level of vaccination of 35 million first-time vaccinated people", which should be reached at the end of June, and a real drop in tension. weighing on the hospital system before largely lifting the epidemic control measures.

According to the latest report, just over 17 million people have received at least one first injection.

Titled "Spring 2021: for a cautious and controlled reopening with health objectives", this notice was sent to the government Thursday evening and posted online this Friday.

The council "autosaisi" to write it, unlike others, which responded to a request from the executive, according to a source close to the council.

The Scientific Council pleads for a reopening strategy "prudent, controlled and with health objectives", alerting to the fact that "the next few weeks remain uncertain and at risk of an epidemic resumption".

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- Nicolas Berrod (@nicolasberrod) May 7, 2021

The President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, announced at the end of April a timetable for the gradual lifting of the restrictive measures, in four stages, extending from the beginning of May to the end of June.

The next stage, on May 19, notably provides for the reopening of all shops, café and restaurant terraces, cinemas and theaters, and the lifting of the curfew to 9 p.m.

Difficult period from the end of May to the end of June

"The reopening" of economic and social activities "appears desirable and even necessary" because it "meets high expectations and gives a perspective to the whole of society, a perspective whose psychological, social and economic benefits are undoubtedly major. », Underlines the Scientific Council. But the body chaired by Jean-François Delfraissy wonders about "the temporality of the process" and considers that it must "imperatively" be accompanied by "health indicators", while the number of contaminations and hospitalized people is decreasing but remains at a high level.

If "during the reopening", the viral circulation stabilizes at "an incidence of less than 100" cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week "or 10,000 new cases per day" (against about 20,000 currently), "the months that come will be much easier to manage ”.

Otherwise, they "will be very uncertain", insists the opinion.

"A hasty exit" from the braking measures could induce "the occurrence during the summer of 2021 of a possible 4th wave", he warns.

The council is particularly worried about the "gap between the conditions of opening envisaged and the level of vaccination of the population which will be reached" and foresees a "difficult period [...] between the beginning of May and the end of June, while the speed race between variants and vaccination ”.