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Covid-19: the epidemic in clear decline ... but less rapid than during the first confinements

2021-05-11T18:02:02.960Z


The improvement in the health situation bodes well as the next stages of reopening approach. But the situation remains fragile


All lights are green.

Whether it is the incidence rate, hospitalizations or daily critical care admissions, the main indicators of the Covid-19 epidemic have been declining sharply for three or even four weeks.

The drop in each of them is currently around 20% in one week, which makes it possible to approach the upcoming reopenings with relative serenity.

Starting with the eagerly awaited stage of May 19, with in particular those of the terraces, museums and all the shops.

The incidence rate, i.e. the number of new positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the past week, is even on the way to falling below the value 200 (this is already the case if the correction for the related bias is not applied). on public holiday).

This is half less than the new threshold set by Emmanuel Macron conditioning the reduction of measures.

Less marked declines this time

It may be interesting to watch how the curves evolved during the two previous confinements, in spring 2020 and then last fall.

We can see that the indicators were falling even faster, but they had also climbed faster.

Whether for the incidence rate or for intensive care admissions, the drop has been as high as 40% in one week at certain times.

Read also Reopenings in mid-May: warnings from the Institut Pasteur

Last November, in three weeks, the incidence rate had gone from a peak above 500 to 250. There, over the same period, it fell from 420 to 280. “The drop was really spectacular at the time. , it was very difficult to explain.

And somewhere that was corrected very quickly, since we found ourselves suddenly on a high plateau at the beginning of December, ”describes epidemiologist Mahmoud Zureik.

A month after the peak and ten days before the date scheduled for reopening (December 15), the incidence had indeed suddenly stabilized around 110. Currently, “the epidemic remains at a still high level, higher than that observed a week before the lifting of the second confinement, ”underlines Public Health France in its latest weekly epidemiological update published Thursday evening.

This indicator of the incidence rate was not used a year ago, since the number of tests performed was very low at that time.

But we can compare this time the daily admissions in critical care (on average over the past week).

In 26 days, this indicator had plunged from nearly 700 to 132. There, it fell during the same period of time from almost 500 to "only" 280.

Variants against vaccination

The main reason for these less dramatic declines? The current measures are obviously not as restrictive as a real confinement with compulsory certification to leave the home (except in certain special cases). The French experienced it in spring 2020, then last fall in a lighter version. The curfew has since been imposed on the whole country, but movement has remained free within a radius of 10 km. "This third confinement was not as effective as the previous two, in particular because of the overcontagiousness of the majority circulating variant, B.1.1.7", also emphasizes epidemiologist Mircea T. Sofonea to The Conversation site. Since mid-February, this so-called “British” variant represents the majority of new positive cases.

If the context at the present moment is different, so too is the future.

And the outlook for the next few weeks looks less gloomy than during the two previous deconfinements, in particular thanks to vaccination.

This, engaged in a "race the clock" with the propagation of the variants, could make it possible to contain a possible rebound of the epidemic, even if its effectiveness could be limited in the immediate future, only a quarter of the population having received a first dose.

Read alsoA return to normal life thanks to vaccination?

What the new Institut Pasteur study says

Another additional element compared to last fall, the summer climate "may have a beneficial effect weakening the circulation of the virus", indicates the Scientific Council in its latest opinion.

But it cannot be enough on its own: the virus had indeed started to circulate actively "from the beginning of July 2020".

As we were starting from very low thanks to the impact of the first very strict containment, this remained relatively unnoticed until the end of August.

The Scientific Council calls for a "low plateau"

“The decline will probably continue for at least a week, but it's extremely difficult to project beyond that. The fact that more and more people are being immunized, whether from a previous infection or through vaccination, and the fact that more people will live outside is a cause for optimism. On the other hand, there will be a lot more interactions with the reopening of schools, restaurants, shops, etc. The outcome of all this is very difficult to predict, ”emphasizes Mahmoud Zureik.

In the coming weeks, in parallel with the various stages of the reopening, everything will therefore still be played out with the behavior of the population. If the incidence returns locally above 400 and if the hospital is under very strong tension, more stringent measures may be taken in a given department or metropolis. A threshold considered too high by the Scientific Council, which pleads to aim for a "low plateau" with an incidence rate of 50 or 100.

Source: leparis

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