Loud bursts of laughter, clinking glasses, a daily menu eaten on a sun-drenched terrace in Israel, Spain and the United Kingdom. These scenes of joy, we will only see it on TV. After exactly 200 days of closure, restaurants, museums, theaters in France are preparing to raise the curtain of a gloomy life. The countdown only displays 72 hours. And places are already being snapped up on the terrace. "It's a bit of a hassle to find one", wonders Michaël, 30, who is already imagining his evening of May 19 "on a rooftop, with tapas, cocktails and lots of friends". Marie, her friend, nods: “It is the symbol of deliverance. "
However, does not this return to the life before it risk causing the epidemic to skyrocket?
According to the latest figures from Public Health France, on average, the incidence rate has fallen to 165, but that's without counting strong regional disparities, 234 in Lille, 270 in Paris, almost 300 in Seine-Saint-Denis, exceeding the maximum alert threshold set at 250 contaminations per 100,000 inhabitants.
For epidemiologist Mircea Sofonea, the virus is circulating at a much higher level than during the first deconfinement and the situation remains fragile.
“An epidemic rebound cannot be ruled out,” says the expert, but the timetable is ambitious.
This time, there is no longer any question of making the same mistake again, one year apart, by opening the floodgates overnight.
"Adjust the constraints if necessary"
This Wednesday, only half of the terraces will be accessible and then fully occupied on June 9, with 50% of the interior and a lifting of the restrictions ten days later. The seats of cinemas and theaters will only be filled to 35% and to begin with, museums, libraries, shops will have to respect the rule of 8 m2 per person. "It is quite well seen by the executive," notes Mircea Sofonea. There are two weeks between each deadline, which makes it possible to assess the impact on hospitalizations and to adjust the constraints if necessary. "
Discussions at the top of the state ran until last Friday. "We have found an agreement to open gradually even if the criteria are very restrictive, we will guarantee a high level of security," notes Jean-Virgile Crance, president of the national grouping of hotel chains. Too bad these measures were not tested upstream in regions more spared by the virus, regrets Mircea Sofonea.
But other factors come into play, this time difficult to anticipate like the current bad weather.
"Will people be able to stay outside if it's 10 degrees?"
"Worries the epidemiologist Philippe Amouyel, even if the risk of being infected in the open air remains very low.
Added to this fear is that of vaccination, which is still limited.
“As it takes 15 days to develop antibodies, only 13 to 14 million and not 20 will be protected with a dose by Wednesday, this must be taken into account,” he continues.
The rule of barrier gestures, hand washing, distance, will remain in place.
Philippe Amouyel insists: “It will be a great moment of freedom, but this joy must be contained.
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