Emilia vexler
05/19/2021 12:23 PM
Clarín.com
Society
Updated 05/19/2021 12:23 PM
In this second wave of coronavirus in Argentina, with an average of 25,000 infections a day, within hours of the end of the Government's DNU and new restrictions emerge, the interior of the country shows dangerously
in crescendo
cases
.
While in the city and province of Buenos Aires there were "good days", where the curve was slightly lowered,
the acceleration of infections in the AMBA
is already marked
.
Which provinces are worse?
What is the incidence of each one per number of inhabitants?
What are the ones that today push the contagion curve at the national level?
First, you have to look at the forest, then the tree.
And that forest has small fires:
the number of cases goes up
.
Jorge Aliaga, physicist, student of the curves of the pandemic, goes there by analyzing the statistics available in Covid Stats.
In those pictures there is "forest" and each tree.
The country and each province.
Aliaga says that it is difficult to be sure about which provinces raise the curve the most, because "first we see the data for what is loaded and only a few days later, when we see the beginning of symptoms, we realize if the load was more or less well statistically distributed or if there was any rare delay. "
In the second wave, then, it marks that eventual deficiencies were not corrected by the Ministry of Health of the Nation when
each jurisdiction shows its "micro pandemic" in numbers
.
"To top it all - says Aliaga - incidence is comparing 14 days against the previous 14 days. That implies a
V
(it goes down and up in 14 days), on the curve, which can give you as if it did not change and yet it is rising With all these exceptions, I would say that
the cases in AMBA began to rise slowly and in the interior strong almost everywhere
", concludes the expert of the Exactas of the UBA and the CONICET.
The incidence is an average that compares the last two weeks with the previous two. As he explains, making such an extensive average gives the advantage of showing
greater stability of infections
and, when there is a change, it is more evident. But the downside is that details are lost. For example, if in seven days the cases fall and in the next seven days they rise again, the incidence shows stability when in reality the curve marks its upward trend.
Before the record of cases and deaths on Tuesday (35,543 positives and 745 deaths), the average daily cases of coronavirus nationwide, which had declined until last week, had risen 4% this week compared to the week above, as a consequence of the increase in infections in several provinces and the slowdown in the decline in the city of Buenos Aires and the Buenos Aires suburbs.
23 provinces present high health risk.
Only one province has a medium health risk.
"Generalized growth, very strong in the interior," insists Aliaga.
And he also talks about "increase in bed occupancy in intensive care".
Soledad Retamar is a member of the Database Research Group (GIBD) of the Concepción del Uruguay Regional Faculty, dependent on the National Technological University (UTN), and explains to
Clarín
why you have to look at the "tree". And, based on the most recent data from Health, it not only indicates which provinces are in red, but it even zooms in on
cities that come in and out of epidemiological alarm
.
The behavior of the curve is different according to the jurisdiction of the country under analysis.
That is the ABC to understand what some provinces push the curve.
In the Covid Stats graph, some show a wall: it is the rise in infections.
One day is not enough.
Always remember that it is better to look at the average of at least a week compared to the previous 7 days, due to the delay in loading.
The case of Formosa is key.
It shows that the notification of 5,630 cases was due to the updating of notifications from previous months pending loading in the National Health Surveillance System, as explained by the health authorities of that province.
"At the national level, considering the incidence of the cases, La Pampa, San Luis and Neuquén are the provinces that present this indicator in the highest values - says Retamar -. They are the provinces that today 'are worse'. Excluding Formosa (for the cases loaded at the wrong time this Monday) ".
La Pampa shows an average - the average of 7 days - of 141 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
The previous week that average was 93. San Luis went from 81 cases to 98 in just seven days.
Neuquén, meanwhile, rose from 63 cases to 81 per 100,000 inhabitants.
But La Pampa, San Luis and Neuquén are not the only ones that are bad.
"Córdoba is presenting a
weekly growth of 55%
in the last week and with a high incidence (762 cases per 100,000 inhabitants)," he points out.
The rest of the jurisdictions are far from a plateau.
Mendoza is the "pearl" that shows decline: it fell from almost 39 average cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 30.
At the departmental level, Retamar indicates, Cañuelas, in the province of Buenos Aires, now go into alarm;
Confluencia, in Neuquén, and Santa Fe Capital.
They leave the "alarm" Bahía Blanca, Exaltación de la Cruz and General Pueyrredón in the Province and, in Mendoza, the capital, Godoy Cruz, Guaymallén, Las Heras, Luján de Cuyo and Maipú.
In the two large districts, the City and the province of Buenos Aires, "
slight growth with high incidence
is beginning to be seen," he
details.
This translates into an incidence of 1,056 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in Buenos Aires, and an average of 734 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in Buenos Aires.
Occupancy of intensive therapy beds
What about the occupancy of intensive care beds in those critical districts?
"I do not have that data. It is very dynamic and the Ministry of Health of the Nation does not publish it disaggregated," emphasizes Retamar.
.
The occupation of intensive care beds, regardless of the condition that explains the hospitalization of the patient, averages 72.2% nationwide.
In the AMBA, it is 76.2%.
This week, the province of Santa Fe admitted a "total health collapse" with full occupation of intensive therapies in the main cities, pushed by the Covid and by serious cases of traffic accidents and urban violence.
Last week Neuquén was in the same situation, with a "waiting list" to occupy a bed.
On the other hand, public and private hospitals in the provinces of Catamarca, Mendoza, San Juan, Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Corrientes, Misiones, CABA and the aforementioned Neuquén reported having
an occupancy of more than 90%
of the beds in the Intensive Care Units (UTI) in a survey conducted by the Sociedad Argentina de Terapia Intensiva (SATI).
53% of those beds belong to patients with Covid-19.
The SATI report was published based on the survey that was carried out on May 14 and that the scientific society updates every week.
72% required mechanical ventilation;
12%, high-flow cannulas;
4%, non-invasive ventilation and 1.6%, the use of Helmet (non-invasive helmet).
In the survey, which the SATI makes clear that it does not contemplate the complete universe of health centers "so it is not prudent to draw conclusions above official statistics",
the occupation of beds in the provinces of Catamarca, Mendoza, Neuquén, and San Juan was higher than 95%
.
In Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Corrientes, Misiones and Capital it was 90%.
Health centers across the country entered the National Health Surveillance System (SNVS) 754 deaths in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of deaths to 71,771.
Argentina ranks 11th among the countries with the most cases and appears in 14th place in the table for the number of deceased persons.
Collaborated: Irene Hartmann
ACE
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