Coronavirus: Axel Kicillof's statistical 'trap' so that face-to-face classes can return

Pablo Sigal

06/11/2021 7:29 PM

• Clarín.com

• Society

Updated 06/11/2021 7:29 PM

The pressure from residents of the province of Buenos Aires to

return classes

, while in the City the classrooms functioned -with protocols- without major inconveniences, was increasing.

It was a difficult path to retrace.

And finally he

got unstuck.

The question was

not to disobey the presidential DNU

, which is attributed so much to Horacio Rodríguez Larreta since he decided that in his district

there are classes

at any cost, beyond the number of coronavirus cases that are counted in society day by day. day.

How then to be able to

"tie"

the audacity without erasing with the elbow what had been written with the hand?

Statistics is an exact science, but it is handled by people.

Depending

on the method

 used to make a calculation, the result may be different.

That is precisely what happened in the

presentation of the figures

made by Governor Axel Kicillof at the press conference this Friday.

He assured that "as of today", there is an incidence of

401 cases per 100,000 inhabitants

in the Conurbano.

The presidential DNU says that if there are

more than 500

there cannot be

face-to-face classes

.

If there is less, yes.

In order to effectively have less, the data of Covid cases was used by

symptom onset date

, instead of by upload date.

What does this mean?

That approximately the last five days do not have the

consolidated figures

.

In the following days, the number of infections continues to be added.

That is, the person whose symptoms start today will only be registered in the system several days later.

That is why those who are dedicated to measuring the statistics of the pandemic

never make their calculations

until the last day, but at least four days before, when it is assumed that the load is already consolidated.

Clarín

consulted an expert on this issue, Mauro Infantino.

He explained that if the cases are taken by diagnosis date - which would be the most realistic option - the incidence of cases

per 100,000 inhabitants is 719

, that is, 219 more cases than what the presidential DNU allows.

"The problem we have is that

there is no single way

to do the calculations, so everyone can do it in their own way. In my opinion, calculating by

diagnosis date is more reliable

to draw conclusions than by starting date. symptoms, "Infantino explained.

One can clearly see this deficit that occurs with the load of cases of the last days when looking at

the official daily part

.

The last days always show fewer infections and deaths, simply because the load has not yet been completed.

There is another issue to consider as well.

"According to the DNU, the calculation of the incidence of cases must be done at the

epidemiological week closed,

" says physicist Jorge Aliaga, another expert in Covid statistics.

The week ends this Saturday.

And the closed week was last Saturday.

A license.

"Until today,"

Kicillof remarked during the press conference in which he gave the magic figure of

401

.

And he was not lying.

That figure that, although not entirely true to reality, will allow you to get out of the

labyrinth

in which millions of students found themselves unable to go to school.

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Look also

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta announced that restaurants will be able to open until 11 p.m. and that shopping malls are back

Coronavirus in Argentina: another 689 deaths and 26,934 new cases are reported