Penelope Canonico
06/14/2021 12:19
Clarín.com
Society
Updated 06/14/2021 12:19 PM
There are two pandemics with different characteristics, and two official strategies that are also dissimilar.
In 2020 the hammer was phase 1 of restrictions, while in 2021 it is the vaccination campaign.
But, for the latter to have an adequate effect, it is necessary to inoculate millions of people in the shortest possible time.
Jorge Aliaga, a researcher at Conicet and a professor at the National University of Hurlingham, predicts that immunization of risk groups will be completed by winter,
but not the general population.
"It is possible that there is an opening of tourism, for the same reasons that was done at Easter.
Not because there is no risk, but to privilege the hit economies that depend on tourism, "he says.
For Silvia González Ayala, head of Infectology at the Faculty of Medical Sciences of the National University La Plata, opening tourism in this situation implies exposure to contagion due to the possibility of introducing another variant
(La Delta, for example)
for which , observing the evolution in the United Kingdom, vaccines provide less protection.
"In any case, tourist locations must organize bubbles and protocols for contingents from the start of the trip and for all activities," he says.
The Federal Council of Education determined that the decision to advance or run the winter recess school period will depend on the health indicators of each district.
The Ministry of Tourism is working with the entire private sector, some provinces with the prospect of having a winter season.
Given the complex health situation, the Government has not yet adopted any definition.
The decision is expected to be known close to the date.
But in the meantime,
several tourist towns have already announced that they have no margin to miss another season
. Such is the case of San Carlos de Bariloche. In Río Negro, infections are growing and the occupation of UTI beds is at the limit. Days ago, the city's merchants expressed in a statement that they will not be able to endure another winter "with the blinds down." They can't afford another winter without a ski season. The hotel occupancy in Bariloche, this Sunday, was 8%.
The same doubts run through tourist destinations in Córdoba or the northwest of the country, where the case curves move upwards.
Especially in Córdoba, where it returned to a rigorous phase 1. The behavior of the second wave, in this case, is replicated with the first: like an oil stain, it expands from the AMBA to the provinces.
It is known, already confirmed by the Minister of Education, Soledad Acuña, that
the winter holidays in the City are kept on the established date
.
From July 16 to August 2.
Everything else is, for now, an enigma.
In the short term, there is no prospect of opening up to foreign tourism.
For specialists, the problem lies in the risk that new variants may enter, such as the Andean one, and they ask to be cautious with the subject.
Although there is no specific date, the Ministry led by Matías Lammens is working with the horizon set in the last quarter.
The idea is to launch an international pre-travel plan, when the borders are opened, with economic incentives for foreign tourism and focused on the regional countries of South America,
which represent 65% of inbound tourism.
What will happen in the summer?
Despite the uncertainty, experts consulted by
Clarín
agree that the
speed with which vaccines are administered
and their effectiveness in the population can
make a difference.
“If in the next three months a
vaccination rate
is achieved
with the two doses
(it impacts on the reduction of the transmission of the disease) of at least
50%
of the inhabitants, we will be able to have a post-pandemic summer similar to that of Europe and celebrate
more health freedoms
.
But, everything is subject to the number of vaccines and the evolution of new variants ”, explains Roberto Debbag, vice president of the Latin American Society of Pediatric Infectology.
According to the data of the Public Vaccination Monitor, of the Ministry of Health of the Nation,
28.63%
is the percentage of those who received
a dose
, while
with
two
applications it barely reaches 8%
.
"The pace in the inoculation rate has increased in recent days," says Aliaga.
He calculates that if 2 million injections are given per week translated into 8 million per month,
in 6 months they should have finished applying both doses
(as long as there are vaccines).
“I think that at this rate, by
spring
a large part of the
population over 18
(who have signed up) will be
vaccinated
.
With this scenario, and following what they are doing in the Northern Hemisphere, we could have a
fairly normal summer
, at least for those
immunized,
”he says.
Of course, the level of access to vaccines will depend, fundamentally, on the
number of doses delivered by laboratories
, beyond the contracts that may be signed.
The
local manufacturing
agreed is an incentive that can help with the campaign.
"
The summer season is assured,
" they tell
Clarín
from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports of the Nation, which is working on a new
national pre-trip
for the
2022
season
(it implies the benefit of the return of 50% of the purchase ).
In the portfolio they maintain the certainty of being able to reach
the summer season
with
good prospects
due to the
progress
in the
vaccination
campaign
added to
last year's
precedent
.
"It was a good season in terms of tourist movement, in which 15 million people traveled, in which there was a drop in cases in most destinations," they highlight.
GS - EMJ
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