Despite fifteen months of crisis, optimism is on the side of Unedic!
The body in charge of unemployment insurance plans an improvement in the balance of the scheme from the second half of 2021, to then resume a path of return to equilibrium from 2023. Given the improvement in the situation health and GDP growth trajectory, raised to 5.75% at the start of the week by the Banque de France for this year, the joint association, which presented its new financial projections Thursday afternoon, estimates that the activity would return to its pre-crisis level in 2022.
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Thus, with the entry into force of the unemployment insurance reform on July 1 and under the assumption of a
"return to better fortune"
on January 1, 2022 - which triggers the second part of the reform -, the regime deficit would drop from 12.0 billion euros in 2021 to 2.4 billion in 2022 before stabilizing at 500 million in 2023. That is to say a deterioration of 2 billion euros for 2021 compared to the projections presented in February of extension of economic and health measures in the first half of the year, but an improvement of 4 billion euros for 2022. This medium-term dynamic is considered encouraging but remains suspended from the application of the reform of unemployment insurance as of this summer.
"this return to a path of equilibrium should not obscure the state of indebtedness of the unemployment insurance scheme"
, estimates Unedic. And for good reason, the debt would point to 69.5 billion euros by 2023. The impact of the crisis would stand at 37.2 billion euros between 2020 and 2022. In addition, the organization is wants to be optimistic about the evolution of salaried employment since it anticipates 126,000 job creations from 2021, 127,000 in 2022 and 109,000 in 2023.
“We would thus find in 2023 the level of salaried employment experienced in the country at the end of 2019 »
, Details the general manager of Unedic.