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Covid: cases fell 30% in June, positivity fell to 23% and what can happen this winter in Argentina

2021-06-24T03:09:01.747Z

The decline stems from weekly averages. How low temperatures will affect the contagion curve, when the population vaccinated until today is half of what was expected.



Pablo Sigal

06/19/2021 2:48 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Society

Updated 06/19/2021 2:48 PM

On Friday, June 4, there were

30,950

registered

cases

of

coronavirus

and 105,645 tests. Two weeks later, this Friday, June 18, there were

20,363 cases

and 100,268 tests. As you can see with the naked eye, the number of infections so far this month has dropped much more than the number of tests. That is, the cases definitely did not drop because there were fewer tests, but because there were

fewer positive tests

.

This sample is the button of a garment today much narrower than that of a few weeks ago. And it goes

beyond a

random isolated

date

. If the term that begins on May 29 is taken as a comparative reference, the average number of cases was

30,425

in the week that lasted between that day and June 4, while in the week that spanned from 11 to 18 June the average value was

21,381

.

In addition to this, the positivity (positive cases versus total tests) went from an

average

29.7 percent

in that initial week versus

23 percent

in the last. It is true that fewer tests were carried out in the weekly total (717,526 then against 646,502 today), but at the same time, we must not lose sight of the fact that the decrease in demand for swabs is partly related to the fact that

fewer people have symptoms.

Another positive: the demand for

intensive care beds

occupied by coronavirus has begun to

decline

. Last Monday a peak of

7,969

had been reached

, while this Saturday that figure was already at

7,467

. Although the occupation continues to be high, a downward trend is beginning to be observed which, it is to be expected, could soon also be reflected in a decrease in the number of

daily deaths

.

These numbers come at a key moment, in which the students from all over the AMBA have returned to the classrooms, after this last week

 the Province enabled face-

to-

face classes

in the suburbs to join the City.

The Buenos Aires district managed to go through the worst of the second wave of Covid with an

uninterrupted continuity

of school attendance, except for three days when it decided to stop the activity (more for political reasons than health) during the week of the May 1 holiday.

CASES


0.000.00000.000


per million inhab.

Xxxxx

DEATHS


00,0000,000


per million inhab.

Source:

Johns Hopkins

Chart:

Flourish

|

Infographic:

Clarín

The current trend in the case curve also brings some reassurance

heading into winter

, which starts next Monday. The question is whether the persistent cold of recent days and the automatic reaction of staying indoors can cause

a rebound in infections

in the days to come. That is still not clear and the challenge ahead is long: there are

between two and three months

of low temperatures left.

The report of the National Meteorological Service for the next quarter predicts that in the AMBA area the temperatures will be

neither more nor less cold than the usual ones

for winter. On the other hand, there was a very benign autumn due to the La Niña, whose “help” allowed the marks from April to June (coinciding with the second wave) to be

higher than normal

. Now, the influence of the climatic phenomenon has become

neutral

.

The weapons to overcome the challenge of winter?

According to the Ministry of Health, "almost

90 percent

of people over 60 years old have at least the first dose against Covid. To this is added that 68 percent of people between 55 and 59 years old began their vaccination scheme, as well as 59 percent of those between 50 and 54 years old and 44 percent of those between 45 and 49 years old ”.

The arsenal against Covid at this time of the year could have been

more robust

, of course, if the forecasts of the arrival of vaccines were fulfilled as they were foreseen in the commitment signed with the laboratories. So far

just over 20 million doses

have been distributed in the country

. But if the contracts had been honored to the letter, by this time in 2021 our country should have had

40 million doses

. That is to say, double.

Now the Government seeks to make up for

lost time

.

For next week the arrival of

1.1 million

doses of AstraZeneca from the United States

was confirmed

, in addition to

two million

from Sinopharm, from a new contract signed with the Chinese laboratory for a total of 6 million vaccines.

Confirmation of a new flight to Russia is also awaited, with the expectation that it may bring more doses of the long-awaited and delayed

second component

of Sputnik V.

$

Look also

The dangerous Delta variant: experts explain how long the Covid will continue to mutate

Researchers from the UBA tested an antihypertensive to treat covid-19 and obtained encouraging results

Source: clarin

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