Pablo Sigal
06/19/2021 2:48 PM
Clarín.com
Society
Updated 06/19/2021 2:48 PM
On Friday, June 4, there were
30,950
registered
cases
of
coronavirus
and 105,645 tests. Two weeks later, this Friday, June 18, there were
20,363 cases
and 100,268 tests. As you can see with the naked eye, the number of infections so far this month has dropped much more than the number of tests. That is, the cases definitely did not drop because there were fewer tests, but because there were
fewer positive tests
.
This sample is the button of a garment today much narrower than that of a few weeks ago. And it goes
beyond a
random isolated
date
. If the term that begins on May 29 is taken as a comparative reference, the average number of cases was
30,425
in the week that lasted between that day and June 4, while in the week that spanned from 11 to 18 June the average value was
21,381
.
In addition to this, the positivity (positive cases versus total tests) went from an
average
29.7 percent
in that initial week versus
23 percent
in the last. It is true that fewer tests were carried out in the weekly total (717,526 then against 646,502 today), but at the same time, we must not lose sight of the fact that the decrease in demand for swabs is partly related to the fact that
fewer people have symptoms.
Another positive: the demand for
intensive care beds
occupied by coronavirus has begun to
decline
. Last Monday a peak of
7,969
had been reached
, while this Saturday that figure was already at
7,467
. Although the occupation continues to be high, a downward trend is beginning to be observed which, it is to be expected, could soon also be reflected in a decrease in the number of
daily deaths
.
These numbers come at a key moment, in which the students from all over the AMBA have returned to the classrooms, after this last week
the Province enabled face-
to-
face classes
in the suburbs to join the City.
The Buenos Aires district managed to go through the worst of the second wave of Covid with an
uninterrupted continuity
of school attendance, except for three days when it decided to stop the activity (more for political reasons than health) during the week of the May 1 holiday.
CASES
0.000.00000.000
per million inhab.
Xxxxx
DEATHS
00,0000,000
per million inhab.
Source:
Johns Hopkins
Chart:
Flourish
|
Infographic:
Clarín
The current trend in the case curve also brings some reassurance
heading into winter
, which starts next Monday. The question is whether the persistent cold of recent days and the automatic reaction of staying indoors can cause
a rebound in infections
in the days to come. That is still not clear and the challenge ahead is long: there are
between two and three months
of low temperatures left.
The report of the National Meteorological Service for the next quarter predicts that in the AMBA area the temperatures will be
neither more nor less cold than the usual ones
for winter. On the other hand, there was a very benign autumn due to the La Niña, whose “help” allowed the marks from April to June (coinciding with the second wave) to be
higher than normal
. Now, the influence of the climatic phenomenon has become
neutral
.
The weapons to overcome the challenge of winter?
According to the Ministry of Health, "almost
90 percent
of people over 60 years old have at least the first dose against Covid. To this is added that 68 percent of people between 55 and 59 years old began their vaccination scheme, as well as 59 percent of those between 50 and 54 years old and 44 percent of those between 45 and 49 years old ”.
The arsenal against Covid at this time of the year could have been
more robust
, of course, if the forecasts of the arrival of vaccines were fulfilled as they were foreseen in the commitment signed with the laboratories. So far
just over 20 million doses
have been distributed in the country
. But if the contracts had been honored to the letter, by this time in 2021 our country should have had
40 million doses
. That is to say, double.
Now the Government seeks to make up for
lost time
.
For next week the arrival of
1.1 million
doses of AstraZeneca from the United States
was confirmed
, in addition to
two million
from Sinopharm, from a new contract signed with the Chinese laboratory for a total of 6 million vaccines.
Confirmation of a new flight to Russia is also awaited, with the expectation that it may bring more doses of the long-awaited and delayed
second component
of Sputnik V.
$
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