It was one of the last strongholds that the Delta Variant had yet to penetrate.
Brittany now has a confirmed case and four other suspects of this mutant, responsible for an outbreak of contaminations in the United Kingdom and among its European neighbors.
“For the moment, we do not know the origin of this contamination.
There are two possibilities: we will find a link with someone who comes from abroad, or, if we do not find a link with abroad, this will confirm the dissemination on the territory ”, notes Jonathan Roux, epidemiologist at the Rennes School of Public Health Studies (Ille-et-Vilaine).
According to the latest statements, Tuesday, June 15, from Olivier Véran, 2 to 4% of the tests screened in France corresponded to the Delta variant, also called "Indian", or from 50 to 150 new contaminations per day.
An underestimated reality, according to an analysis carried out this Sunday by the Financial Times and based on virus tracking data from the Gisaid platform, which instead estimates this figure at 6.9%.
Read also Covid-19: Macron and Merkel warn of the dangerousness of the Delta variant
A study, pre-published on Sunday - but which has not yet been reviewed by the scientific community - and carried out by the "ETE" team, scientists from the CNRS, the Research Institute for Development, and the University of Montpellier (Hérault), estimates that in Île-de-France, in mid-June, its frequency could already be greater than 10%.
According to their calculations, the Delta variant is also between 67% and 120% more transmissible than the other mutants.
However, this analysis has several biases, as the authors themselves point out.
VIDEO.
Covid-19: "2 to 4% of Delta variant detected in France", indicates Olivier Véran
"There is a good chance that it will become the majority"
While it is difficult to know precisely the prevalence of the Delta variant on French soil, scientists need only look at the situation in Great Britain to get an idea of what lies ahead.
"It is our beacon," recognizes Mahmoud Zureik, professor of epidemiology and public health at the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines.
“What happened with the Alpha variant in Great Britain then happened in France.
(…) The most important thing is to see the evolution over time and to observe what is happening elsewhere to know how the Delta variant settles down, ”he insists.
One thing is certain, recalls Jonathan Roux, it is more transmissible than its British cousin.
“We know that there is a good chance that it will become the majority.
"
An epidemic rebound in September?
With what consequences?
An epidemic rebound from September, which could lead, in the most pessimistic scenario of the study of the "ETE" group, to an occupation of more than 3,000 beds in critical care.
"We can act now, as long as his presence is still weak, alert Mahmoud Zureik.
You have to do sequencing, screening, tracing upstream and downstream, and providing effective isolation.
"
France could be helped by its vaccination campaign.
“We have good vaccination coverage and we know that the vaccine is effective against severe forms.
If there is an epidemic resumption, it will not necessarily result in an increase in intensive care admissions, because it will probably affect young people who are not vaccinated, but who do not or few severe forms ”, tempers Jonathan Roux .
The weather should also give a boost. “We know that heat and UV have a consequence on the virus. In summer, people go outside more easily, we integrate barrier gestures more easily. In a way, it's a chance that he's now arriving in France. "
