There is not necessarily a need for a Delta variant for the Covid-19 epidemic to skyrocket.
The example of Reunion Island and especially Martinique proves it.
In these two overseas territories, this variant which suggests a fourth wave in metropolitan France is hardly circulating (less than 2% of the positive tests screened display the L452R mutation, which is characteristic of it).
And yet, the incidence rate - the number of positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the past week - is exploding.
In Martinique, it was almost multiplied by 4 in one week, going from 31 to 115. The positivity rate is also in very strong increase (6.6%, 3 times more than a week earlier).
The increase in incidence is less sustained in Reunion, but the territory is already at much higher levels (157, + 12% in one week).
As in mainland France and in many European countries (United Kingdom, Spain, etc.), this recovery is “carried” by young adults.
In Martinique, the incidence rate fell from 76 to 549 in one week among 20-29 year olds.
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How the epidemic is starting again among young people
“After more than nine consecutive weeks of decline in the epidemic, Martinique is once again experiencing a peak in contamination.
This rebound mainly affects young people at this stage.
It is linked to festive and friendly events that have taken place since the end of the curfew in mid-June, and this rebound threatens us, ”alerted the prefect, Stanislas Cazelles, during a press point broadcast on Facebook on Tuesday.
The clusters would mainly be identified during weddings or parties.
Mask obligatory in the street
Several measures have been announced by local authorities. From this Thursday, the wearing of the mask is again "largely compulsory on the public highway" - it is no longer in metropolitan France since June 17 -, with reinforced controls. Restaurants are again subject to a fairly strict health protocol, while discos must remain closed - they are authorized to reopen this Friday in metropolitan France. All these provisions are intended to avoid a real new confinement. A consultation with local elected officials is also underway to decide on a possible return of the curfew.
This rebound in the epidemic has, for the moment, little impact on the hospital.
In Martinique, between one and 6 hospitalizations were recorded each day of the past week.
This is more than in June (almost no serious form), but much less than during the peak of the wave last April (20 hospitalizations on certain days).
In Reunion, just over 10 hospital admissions are recorded daily and this influx of patients has been stable since March.
Late vaccination
In their latest risk analysis, published on June 30, Public Health France and the National Reference Center for Respiratory Infection Viruses confirm "that significant community circulation of the Delta variant has not been detected in these territories, despite several clusters in the West Indies and sporadic indigenous cases recently identified in Réunion ”.
But other strains of SARS-CoV-2 classified as “worrying” circulate there a lot.
The Alpha variant (known as “British”) is in the majority in Martinique, Beta (known as “South African”) in Réunion and Gamma (known as “Brazilian”) in Guyana, where the epidemic is receding but remains at very high levels ( incidence rate of 185).
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These French territories risk being penalized by the fact that the population is much less vaccinated there than in metropolitan France, in particular due to logistical difficulties and a strong mistrust of part of the population. Barely more than 15% of inhabitants in Martinique and 28% in Reunion have received at least one dose, against more than half across the whole of France. Accelerating vaccination is the main objective of the government in order to hope to limit the extent of this "fourth wave", especially in hospitals.
